Are We Headed for a World Without Oil?

The stunning nosedive in oil prices last week caught the country by surprise. Many drivers accustomed to prices spiking at the pump are now paying less than $1 a gallon for gas. But the collapse in the market for crude oil shouldn't be unexpected — it's clear that the pandemic presents many problems. The real shock is that oil prices might never recover.

For the first time in decades, nobody wants to buy oil. In a world besieged by COVID-19, people have stopped driving to work, flying on business trips, and taking weekend trips with their families. About 30 percent of the oil market goes to transportation and shipping, but the pandemic has dramatically reduced the need for using planes, trains, and ships. The price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil spiraled out of control — reaching a perplexing low of -$40 per barrel — while European-produced Brent Crude fell to $18.50 per barrel.

When consumers stop buying products off the shelves — a situation economists identify as supply exceeding demand — the price for the product falls. Businesses usually respond to a collapse in demand by scaling back production. That's what the global oil industry tried to do recently: in a deal negotiated with the aid of President Trump, Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to reduce their production of crude oil by 10 percent. For U.S. companies, this step is difficult — the market requires companies to spend heavily up front to invest in machinery and pipelines, and they need to sell oil to get out of debt.

No matter how far the price drops today, it's not going to rebound until the world economy reopens. That's because consumers only use oil when they need it. Nobody needs to heat their homes more if heating oil is cheaper. Consumers might be tempted to drive or fly more often when prices are low, but that option is not available with much of the world in a lockdown. And even as travel and public gathering restrictions are lifted, the public will take time to return to normal levels of activity until they trust that it's safe.

The swelling unemployment rolls are also a major problem. For at least the next few months, many consumers who lost their jobs or saw their salaries reduced will not be able or willing to spend at the same rate. So it doesn't matter how far the price drops, because the demand for oil won't grow until the world economy rebounds and people are able to spend again. That is unlikely to happen this year.

An industry rebound from COVID-19 may only be temporary, because the market for oil has many problems. For the past 60 years, sovereign nations like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela have worked together to tightly control the oil market and maintain high prices. In a world dominated by cars and planes, they took in record profits.

The supremacy of oil is quickly cracking. The arrival of fracking in the U.S., which allowed U.S. mining companies to reliably extract oil, has added a brand-new oil source to the global market and is driving down the price. Additionally, the imminent threat of climate change has forced the auto industry to rapidly pursue electric vehicles. A slight increase in global sales of electric vehicles — such as hitting 15 percent of the new car market — would be disastrous for the oil industry. The trend of states and municipalities banning plastic bags could further reduce the need for oil.

The only clear way the price of oil could rise right now is if companies massively reduce their production and sit tight until consumers regain the confidence to carry on life as usual. For U.S. fracking companies, there's almost no other option, because storage capacity in Oklahoma — the center of fracking activity — is all but nonexistent. If gas doesn't sell at the pump, fracking companies have no way to sit on the oil until a later date. Fracking is also expensive, and some now face impending bankruptcy. It is only a matter of time until we see a precipitous drop in U.S. tight oil production.

A year from now the fracking industry will be much, much smaller and much better capitalized — if it exists at all. There's no way around it: the oil market permanently changed this week. Consolidation of the industry was already underway, and last week's drama will only accelerate it.