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Global Risk Premiums on Direct Office Real Estate Returns
This article empirically examines the magnitude of risk premiums for direct real estate investments on a global basis. As this article analyzes ex-ante risk premiums over more than 25 years consistently across the world, it enhances current knowledge about the regional differences between risk premiums and helps long-term investors with their global portfolio allocation over time. On a global level, the authors find a risk premium of 4.1% for Gordon’s growth and 3.7% for two-stage growth model. The periodic growth model shows a slightly lower risk premium of 3.1%.
1. Finance and Economics
Columbia Business School’s position in the heart of New York City places it at the most important nexus of the global financial industry. It’s no coincidence that finance and economics are at the very core of Columbia Business School’s research and scholarship.
Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market
This paper examines the contribution of out-of-town second-house buyers to mispricing in the housing market. We show that demand from out-of-town second-house buyers during the mid 2000s predicted not only house-price appreciation rates but also implied-to-actual-rent-ratio appreciation rates, a proxy for mispricing. We then apply a novel identification strategy to address the issue of reverse causality.
Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide
We investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs by defaulting on their mortgages. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by U.S. state government lawsuits against Countrywide Financial Corporation, which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers with subprime mortgages throughout the country. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we find that Countrywide's relative delinquency rate increased more than ten percent per month immediately after the program's announcement.
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Should the Government Be Paying Investment Fees on $3 Trillion of Tax-Deferred Retirement Assets?
Under standard assumptions, individuals and the government are indifferent between traditional tax-deferred retirement accounts and “front-loaded” (Roth) accounts. Adding investment fees to this benchmark, individuals are still indifferent but the government is not. We show that under weak conditions firms charge equal percent fees under both systems, yielding higher dollar fees under Traditional. We estimate that tax deferral increases demand for asset management services by $3.8 trillion, costing the government $23.4 billion in annual fees.
Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans
Companies that freeze defined benefit pension plans save the equivalent of 13.5% of the long-horizon payroll of current employees. Furthermore, firms with higher prospective accruals are more likely to freeze their plans. Cost savings would not be possible in a benchmark model in which i) all workers receive compensation equal to their marginal product and ii) workers value equally all identical-cost forms of pension benefits.
Education, Cognitive Performance, and Investment Fees
We study the association between human capital and rollovers into Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), using administrative records from the defined contribution savings plan for U.S. government employees: the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). Employees who separate from government employment have the option to leave balances in the TSP, where fees are currently under 4 basis points. However, we estimate that more than a third of the TSP balances end up being rolled over into IRA accounts, which are very likely to have much higher fees.
1. Finance and Economics
Columbia Business School’s position in the heart of New York City places it at the most important nexus of the global financial industry. It’s no coincidence that finance and economics are at the very core of Columbia Business School’s research and scholarship.
What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?
We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an "all or nothing" decision. Very few respondents choose declining real payout streams over flat or increasing real payout streams of equivalent expected present value. Highlighting the effects of inflation increases demand for cost of living adjustments. Frames that highlight flexibility, control, and investment significantly reduce annuitization.




