Japan's Political Turmoil By Vivien Ng, MBA '09
In the wake of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s resignation and the election of Taro Aso as his successor, Gerald Curtis, Burgess Professor of Political Science, Columbia University, gave a special lecture titled “Japan's Politics: Current Realities, Future Possibilities.” The event was cosponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute (WEAI) and the Center on Japanese Economy and Business (CJEB) of Columbia Business School on September 25. Approximately 180 people were in attendance. Curtis said it is unclear when the next election will be held, as the LDP is nervous that they will concede power. If the election is held in October or November, Aso may become the prime minister with the shortest time in office, thus elections may be delayed in the hope that Aso gets a bounce in the polls. Regardless, Curtis predicted that Japan will have at least two prime ministers within the next twelve months.
According to Curtis the likely outcome of the upcoming election in Japan is a change of power. He expects that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will win by a very narrow margin over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and then put together a coalition with Ichiro Ozawa as prime minister. While Curtis indicated that Ozawa would struggle as prime minister, he also said that under Ozawa the Japanese public would be excited by “interesting, young, well-informed people in key cabinet positions that would be a breath of fresh air in the system.”
Curtis outlined two other possible scenarios of the election. A second scenario would be the LDP wins slightly more seats than the DPJ. In this case the LDP would not be able to do much because DPJ could push for another election, causing the LDP to call for a grand coalition with DPJ. The third and least likely scenario for Japan would be the LDP and its current coalition partner, Komeito, win a solid majority and the DPJ self-destructs. This would be the worst outcome in Curtis’ view because no change would result.
The current administration is, according to Curtis, “an extraordinary cabinet because it is so unattractive to the Japanese public.” There are no stars or exciting personalities. He explained that one of the reasons the cabinet is so weak is that 11 out of 17 members are hereditary politicians. This is representative of a problem with Japanese politics more generally. When these later generations joined politics, it was not out of passion or fascination with politics, but out of “filial obligation.” In addition, whereas previous LDP members understood the Japanese people in their districts, the current generation of hereditary politicians grew up in Tokyo, quite removed from their constituents in the rural districts. This reflects the disintegration of the LDP system for recruiting politicians and Curtis noted that as a result “the quality of leadership has deteriorated terribly in Japan.”
Reiterating his belief in creative destruction, Curtis said the current system has to be destroyed to create a new system. “You need a prime minister who can think 10, 20 years out, who has a picture of the future and then has a strategy of how to get there.”
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