Economics Insights @ CBS

In many service industries, firms introduce three-part tariffs to replace or complement existing two-part tariffs. As opposed to two-part tariffs, three-part tariffs offer allowances, or “free” units of the service. Behavioral research suggests that attributes of a pricing plan may affect behavior beyond their direct cost implications and there is evidence that customers value “free” units above and beyond what would be expected based on the change to their budget constraint. Nonlinear pricing research, however, has abstracted from such an effect.

This work examines the impact of discharge decisions under uncertainty in a capacity-constrained high-risk setting: the intensive care unit (ICU). New arrivals to an ICU are typically very high-priority patients and, should the ICU be full upon their arrival, discharging a patient currently residing in the ICU may be required to accommodate a newly admitted patient. Patients so discharged risk physiologic deterioration, which might ultimately require readmission; models of these risks are currently unavailable to providers.

We consider a trader who aims to liquidate a large position in the presence of an arbitrageur who hopes to profit from the trader's activity. The arbitrageur is uncertain about the trader's position and learns from observed price fluctuations. This is a dynamic game with asymmetric information. We present an algorithm for computing perfect Bayesian equilibrium behavior and conduct numerical experiments. Our results demonstrate that the trader's strategy differs significantly from one that would be optimal in the absence of the arbitrageur.