Is the U.S. in Recession? CBS Experts Weigh in on the Economic Outlook
New data has sparked a debate about the state of the economy. Here’s what some of our faculty members had to say.
New data has sparked a debate about the state of the economy. Here’s what some of our faculty members had to say.
There is perhaps no topic that is more important for the functioning of a market economy than competition policy. The theorems and analyses stating that market economies deliver benefits in the form of higher living standards and lower prices are all based on the assumption that there is effective competition in the market. At the same time when Adam Smith emphasised that competitive markets deliver enormous benefits, he also emphasised the tendency of firms to suppress competition.
The veteran economist and CBS professor joined Professor Brett House to explore how erratic policymaking, rising tariffs, and politicized institutions are shaking global confidence in the U.S. economy.
During a recent Distinguished Speakers Series event, the Senior Partner and Chair of North America at McKinsey shared leadership insights on AI business strategy, climate innovation, and the future of work.
Insights from Columbia Business School faculty explain how the president’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are fueling market volatility, undermining global economic stability, and impacting the Fed's ability to lower interest rates.
A Columbia Business School study shows that experiencing a recession in young adulthood leads to lasting support for wealth redistribution—but mostly for one’s own group.
We extract aggregate demand and supply shocks for the US economy from real-time survey data on inflation and real GDP growth using a novel identification scheme. Our approach exploits non-Gaussian features of macroeconomic forecast revisions and imposes minimal theoretical assumptions. After verifying that our results for US post-war business cycle fluctuations are largely in line with the prevailing consensus, we proceed to study output and price fluctuations during COVID-19. We attribute two thirds of the decline in 2020:Q1 GDP to a negative shock to aggregate demand.
We distinguish between "good" and "bad" carry trades constructed from G-10 currencies. The good trades exhibit higher Sharpe ratios and sometimes positive return skewness, in contrast to the bad trades that have both substantially lower Sharpe ratios and highly negative return skewness. Surprisingly, good trades do not involve the most typical carry currencies like the Australian dollar and Japanese yen.
Why does power lead to action? Theories of power suggest it leads to action because it presses the psychological gas pedal. A review of two decades of research finds, instead, that power releases the psychological brakes on action. Power releases the psychological brakes on action by making failure seem less probable and feel less painful, thereby decreasing the downside risks of action. Power releases the psychological brakes on action by shrouding the feelings and thoughts of others, thereby diminishing the perceived social costs of action.