Corporate Finance

This paper develops a pure simulation-based approach for computing maximum likelihood estimates in latent state variable models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our MCMC algorithm simultaneously evaluates and optimizes the likelihood function without resorting to gradient methods. The approach relies on data augmentation, with insights similar to simulated annealing and evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithms. We prove a limit theorem in the degree of data augmentation and use this to provide standard errors and convergence diagnostics.

Contrary to the common perception that operating cash flows are better than accounting earnings at explaining equity valuations, recent studies suggest that valuations derived from industry multiples based on reported earnings are closer to traded prices than those based on reported operating cash flows.

Explicit presence of reorganization in addition to liquidation leads to conflicts of interest between borrowers and lenders. In the first-best outcome, reorganization adds value to both parties via higher debt capacity, lower credit spreads, and improved overall firm value. If control of the ex ante reorganization timing and the ex post decision to liquidate is given to borrowers, most of the benefits are appropriated by borrowers ex post. Lenders can restore the first-best outcome by seizing this control or by the ex post transfer of control rights.

This study offers the first empirical microeconomic analysis of the effectiveness of dollar debt and contract redenomination policies to mitigate adverse financial and relative price consequences from a large devaluation.

While standard real options models assume that agents possess a constant rate of time preference, there is substantial evidence that agents are impatient about choices in the short term but are patient when choosing between long-term alternatives. We extend the real options framework to model the investment-timing decisions of entrepreneurs with time-inconsistent preferences.

Entrepreneurs often face undiversifiable idiosyncratic risks from their business investments. We extend the standard real options approach to an incomplete markets environment and analyze the joint decisions of business investments, consumption/savings, and portfolio selection. For a lumpsum investment payoff and an agent with a sufficiently strong precautionary savings motive, an increase in volatility can accelerate investment, contrary to the standard real options analysis.

Records of 793,794 employees eligible to participate in 647 defined contribution pension plans are studied. About 71% of them choose to participate in the plans, and of the participants, 12% choose to contribute the maximum allowed, $10,500.

We propose an analytically tractable continuous-time model of experimentation in which a risk-averse entrepreneur cannot fully diversify the idiosyncratic risk from his business investment. He makes consumption/savings and business exit decisions jointly, while learning about the unknown quality of the project over time.

We examine the predictive power of the dividend yield for forecasting future excess returns, cashflows, and interest rates. The ability of the dividend yield to predict excess returns is best visible at short horizons with the short rate as an additional regressor. At short horizons, the short rate strongly negatively predicts excess returns, while at long horizons, the predictive power of the dividend yield is weak. These results are robust in international data and are not due to lack of power.