Decision Making & Negotiations

Using mutual funds' quarterly holdings of credit default swap (CDS) contracts over 2007-2011, we analyze the motives for and consequences of funds' CDS investment pre- and post-financial crisis. Consistent with theories, funds resort to CDS selling when facing unpredictable liquidity needs and when the CDS security is liquid relative to the underlying bond, and to CDS buying as part of a "negative basis trade" when the bond is illiquid. Smaller funds follow leading funds in yield searching.

Researchers have debated whether a person’s behavior can be predicted from his or her face. In particular, it is unclear whether people’s trustworthiness can be predicted from their facial appearance. In the present study, we implemented conceptual and methodological advances in this area of inquiry, taking a new approach to capturing trustworthy behavior and measuring targets’ own self-expectations as a mediator between consensual appearance-based judgments and the trustworthiness of targets’ behavior.

A new class of online services allows internet media sites to direct users from articles they are currently reading to other content they may be interested in. This process creates a "browsing path'' along which there is potential for repeated interaction between the user and the provider, giving rise to a dynamic optimization problem. A key metric that often underlies this recommendation process is the click-through rate (CTR) of candidate articles.

Improvisation is informing new models for strategy and organization design and determining how improvisation can create more productive interactions between individuals in an organization. Management research offers something to the study of improvisation in the form of evidence that groups that combine access to diverse ideas with internal cohesion are more creative and better able to develop those ideas into effective products and performances.

When a proxy contest is looming, the rate at which CEOs exercise options to sell (hold) the resulting shares slows down by 80% (accelerates by 60%), consistent with their desire to maintain or strengthen voting rights when facing challenges. Such deviations are closely aligned with features unique to proxy contests, such as the record dates and nomination status, and are more pronounced when the private benefits are higher or when the voting rights are more crucial.

An Expected Utility maximizer can be risk neutral over a set of non-degenerate multivariate distributions even though her NM (von Neumann Morgenstern) index is not linear. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for an individual with a concave NM utility to exhibit risk neutral behavior and characterize the regions of the choice space over which risk neutrality is exhibited. The least concave decomposition of the NM index introduced by Debreu [3] plays an important role in our analysis as do the notions of minimum concavity points and minimum concavity directions.

We develop a tractable incomplete-markets model with an earnings process Y subject to permanent shocks and borrowing constraints. Financial frictions cause the marginal (certainty equivalent) value of wealth W to be greater than unity and decrease with liquidity w=W/Y. Additionally, financial frictions cause consumption to decrease with this endogenously determined marginal value of liquidity. Risk aversion and the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution play very different roles on consumption and the dispersion of w.

This paper examines the role of a hospital Step-Down Unit (SDU) on patient flows and patient outcomes. An SDU provides an intermediate level of care for semi-critically ill patients who are not sick enough to require intensive care but not stable enough to be treated in the general medical/surgical ward (ward). Using data from 10 hospitals from a single hospital network, we use an instrumental variable approach to estimate the impact on patient outcomes of routing patients to the SDU following Intensive Care Unit (ICU) discharge.