Financial Engineering

The well-documented underreaction of stock prices to news exhibits substantial time variation. Higher risk-bearing capacity of financial intermediaries, lower passive ownership of stocks, and more informative news increase price responses to contemporaneous news; surprisingly, they also increase price responses to lagged news (underreaction). Our findings are not driven by short-sale constraints, serial correlation in news flow, or improved information processing capacity. We discuss possible mechanisms based on investor behavior and strategic order-splitting by institutions.

The paper's introduction offers a high-level review of Bitcoin's features, especially its governance by protocol. The paper proceeds to summarize Bitcoin's analysis as a payment system. It pays particular attention to a comparison between Bitcoin and a firm-run payment system.

The 30-year U.S. swap spreads have been negative since September 2008. We offer a novel explanation for this persistent anomaly. Through an illustrative model, we show that underfunded pension plans optimally use swaps for duration hedging. Combined with dealer banks' balance sheet constraints, this demand can drive swap spreads to become negative. Empirically, we construct a measure of the aggregate funding status of Defined Benefit pension plans and show that this measure is a significant explanatory variable of 30-year swap spreads.

We develop an empirical model of exchange rate returns, applied separately to samples of developed (DM) and developing (EM) economies’ currencies against the dollar. Monetary policy stance of the global central banks, measured via a natural-language-based approach, has a large effect on exchange rate returns over the ensuing year, is closely linked to the VIX, and becomes increasingly important in the post-crisis era.

From wood to coal to oil and gas, the sources of energy on which civilization depends have always changed as technology advances. Now renewables are overtaking fossil fuels, with wind and solar energy becoming cheaper and more competitive every year. Growth in renewable energy will further accelerate as electric vehicles become less expensive than traditional automobiles. Understanding the implications of the energy transition will prepare us for the many changes ahead.

This paper modifies the standard returns-earnings regression in accounting research to show that financial reports convey both cash-flow news and discount-rate (expected-return) news. The paper points to the realization principle, associated as it is with the resolution of risk, as the accounting feature that conveys expected-return news. The modified returns-earnings regressions indicate that the information so conveyed pertains to priced risk.

In this article, we provide a descriptive account of how people from different generations vary in their use of financial management technology, their access credit markets, and how they finance consumption and incur financial costs and penalties. We use a detailed panel of transaction-level data from Iceland on individual spending, incomes, balances, and credit limits from a personal financial management software. We find that technology adoption is faster for millennials, but use of consumer credit and financial penalties are higher for older generations.

We use a very accurate panel of all individual spending, income, balances, and credit limits from a financial aggregation app and document significant payday responses of spending to the arrival of both regular and irregular income. These payday responses are clean, robust, and homogeneous for all income and spending categories throughout the income distribution. Spending responses to income are typically explained by households' capital structures: households that hold little or no liquid wealth have to consume hand-to-mouth.

Two modern economic trends are the increase in firm size and advances in information technology. We explore the hypothesis that big data disproportionately benefits big firms. Because they have more economic activity and a longer firm history, large firms have produced more data. As processor speed rises, abundant data attracts more financial analysis. Data analysis improves investors’ forecasts and reduces equity uncertainty, reducing the firm’s cost of capital. When investors can process more data, large firm investment costs fall by more, enabling large firms to grow larger.