Fundamental Investment Analysis

Numerous studies have documented that stock returns are negatively related to changes in interest rates, but there has been little corroborating research on the information in interest rate changes about the fundamentals that the stock market prices. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted.

During the recent stock market bubble, the traditional financial reporting model was assailed as a backward-looking system, out of date in the Information Age. With the bursting of the bubble, the quality of financial reporting is again under scrutiny, but now for not adhering to traditional principles of sound earnings measurement and asset and liability recognition. This paper is a retrospective on the quality of financial reporting during the 1990s. Did reporting under U.S. GAAP perform well during the bubble, or was its quality suspect?

This paper studies the capital budgeting process in a setting where a manager is privately informed about the profitability of an investment project and enjoys nonpecuniary benefits of control ("empire benefits"). I characterize the optimal required rate of return and show that a delegation scheme with residual income-based compensation can replicate the benchmark performance achieved under centralization. The main result of the paper is that the optimal capital charge rate for computing residual income always exceeds the required rate of return as a result of empire benefits.

The article examines the price implications of corporate disclosures as well as other information releases. Corporate disclosures are an important source of information for investors. For dividend announcements, the price implications appear straightforward: price is the present value of expected future dividends. Hence, to the extent that future dividends are related to current dividends, dividend changes should trigger price responses. Other corporate disclosures, such as earnings, may also be viewed as proxies for future dividends.

The chapter has two main sections. The first one describes various violations of the Law of One Price. The section that follow it considers a related, but very different and fundamental issue: Why do people trade?

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The earnings—or rather losses—reported during the bubble were a good predictor of outcomes for dot.com firms. But are earnings the fundamental on which we should focus? The title of my talk suggests dividends as an alternative. Some analysts focus on cash flows, distrusting earnings. In the last ten years, alternative concepts like "comprehensive income," "residual income," and "abnormal earnings" have been advanced. There have been more references to book value. In addition to the profusion of new age techniques, an increasing number of fundamental attributes have been advanced.

As more firms adopt a customer asset management approach to their business, it has become increasingly important to understand how customer management efforts relate to the financial performance of the firm. Of specific interest to shareholders is the relationship between traditional financial measures and customer-centric measures. The customer-centric measure that has received the most attention is customer lifetime value (CLV).

In this paper we argue that allowing for uncertainty resolves the controversy over the importance of life-cycle and bequest saving by showing that these motives for saving are overlapping and cannot generally be distinguished.

When a firm practices conservative accounting, changes in the amount of its investments can affect the quality of its earnings. Growth in investment reduces reported earnings and creates reserves. Reducing investment releases those reserves, increasing earnings. If the change in investment is temporary, then current earnings is temporarily depressed or inflated, and thus is not a good indicator of future earnings. This study develops diagnostic measures of this joint effect of investment and conservative accounting.