Fundamental Investment Analysis

We examine the valuation performance of a comprehensive list of value drivers and find that multiples derived from forward earnings explain stock prices remarkably well: pricing errors are within 15 percent of stock prices for about half our sample. In terms of relative performance, the following general rankings are observed consistently each year: forward earnings measures are followed by historical earnings measures, cash flow measures and book value of equity are tied for third, and sales performs the worst.

Minton, Schrand and Walther (2002) (MSW) investigate whether cash flow (earnings) volatility helps predict subsequent levels of cash flow (earnings). Price is the present value of expected future cash flows, so if cash flow volatility forecasts future cash flows (the numerator in the present value calculation), it should have valuation implications. A similar motivation applies to earnings, which may be viewed as a proxy for cash flow.

The logic of consolidation became a controversial mantra of the real estate industry during the late 1990s. Five years later, the empirical research on economies of scale cannot resolve the debate. In an industry as fragmented as real estate, market dominance and pricing power is exceedingly hard to establish.

For the past four decades, dozens of researchers have studied consumer price knowledge, often with disagreements on the extent of consumer' ignorance about prices. While some of these disagreements have been attributed to research design variations among studies, no inquiry has yet been made on the role of the economic environment on consumer price knowledge. Nevertheless, environmental factors such as interest rates, unemployment, and economic growth may significantly influence consumers' knowledge of prices.

Did analysts contribute to perpetuating the stock market bubble of 2000? In my view, a considerable analysis during the bubble was suspect. I lay out here what I see as the mistakes, as a matter of historical record. My aim, however, is not just to document the poor thinking during the bubble, but to convey what good, orderly thinking about fundamental value involves—to avoid mistakes in the future.

Financial statement analysis has traditionally been seen as part of the fundamental analysis required for equity valuation. But the analysis has typically been ad hoc. Drawing on recent research on accounting-based valuation, this paper outlines a financial statement analysis for use in equity valuation. Standard profitability analysis is incorporated, and extended, and is complemented with an analysis of growth. An analysis of operating activities is distinguished from the analysis of financing activities. The perspective is one of forecasting payoffs to equities.

A Sunday New York Times article on a potential development of new cancer-curing drugs caused EntreMed's stock price to rise from 12.063 at the Friday close, to open at 85 and close near 52 on Monday. It closed above 30 in the three following weeks. The enthusiasm spilled over to other biotechnology stocks. The potential breakthrough in cancer research already had been reported, however, in the journal Nature, and in various popular newspapers (including the Times) more than five months earlier.

From the publisher: From the "guru to Wall Street's gurus" comes the fundamental techniques of value investing and their applications. Bruce Greenwald is one of the leading authorities on value investing. Some of the savviest people on Wall Street have taken his Columbia Business School course on the subject. Now this dynamic and popular teacher, with some colleagues, reveals the fundamental principles of value investing, the one investment technique that has proven itself consistently over time.