Financial Institutions

In the fall of 2008, fifteen of the world's leading economists — representing the broadest spectrum of economic opinion — gathered at New Hampshire's Squam Lake. Their goal: the mapping of a long-term plan for financial regulation reform.

This paper proposes a simple model to study how domestic institutions affect patterns of international capital flows. Inefficient financial system, and poor corporate governance, may be bypassed by two-way capital flows in which domestic savings leave the country in the form of financial capital outflows but domestic investment takes place via inward FDI. While financial globalization always improves the welfare of a developed country with a good financial system, its effect is ambiguous for a developing country with an inefficient financial sector or poor corporate governance.

We examine whether securitization impacts renegotiation decisions of loan servicers, focusing on their decision to foreclose a delinquent loan. Conditional on a loan becoming seriously delinquent, we find a significantly lower foreclosure rate associated with bank-held loans when compared to similar securitized loans: across various specifications and origination vintages, the foreclosure rate of delinquent bankheld loans is 3% to 7% lower in absolute terms (13% to 32% in relative terms).

This article studies optimal mortgage design in a continuous-time setting with volatile and privately observable income, costly foreclosure, and a stochastic market interest rate. We show that the features of the optimal mortgage are consistent with an option adjustable-rate mortgage (option ARM). Under the optimal contract, the borrower is given discretion of how much to repay until his balance reaches a certain limit. The default rates and interest rate payment on the mortgage correlate positively with the market interest rate.

This paper explores the link between financial conditions and economic activity. We first review existing measures, including both single indicators and composite financial conditions indexes (FCIs). We then build a new FCI that features three key innovations. First, besides interest rates and asset prices, it includes a broad range of quantitative and survey-based indicators. Second, our use of unbalanced panel estimation techniques results in a longer time series (back to 1970) than available for other indexes.

Frederic Mishkin responds to the Brookings Institution paper "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets" by John Campbell, Robert Shiller, and Luis Viceira. Drawing from his experience as a former governor of the Federal Reserve, Mishkin discusses why their analysis is so important for policymakers.