Rare-event simulation for multistage production-inventory systems
We consider the problem of precise estimation of service-level measures in multistage production-inventory systems when the system is managed for high levels of service. Precisely because the service level is high, stockouts, large backorders, and unfilled demands are rare and thus difficult to estimate by straightfoward simulation. We propose and analyze alternative estimators, based on changing the demand distribution to make these rare events less rare.