Research Lab

We explore captain-ownership and vessel performance in eighteenth-century transatlantic shipping. Although contingent compensation often aligned incentives between captains and ship owners, one difficult-to-contract hazard was threat of capture during wartime. We exploit variation across time and routes to study the relationship between capture threat and captain-ownership. Vessels were more likely to have captain-owners when undertaking wartime voyages on routes susceptible to privateers.

This paper introduces a novel empirical approach to estimate the effects of an informational friction limiting the reallocation of credit after a shock to banks. Because lenders rely on private information when deciding which relationship to end, borrowers looking for a new lender are adversely selected. I show how to identify private information separately from information common to all lenders, but unobservable to the econometrician, by using bank shocks within a discrete-choice model of relationships. Applying this approach to the U.S.

The incentive contracts of delegated investment managers may have unintended negative consequences for asset prices. I show that managers who are compensated for relative performance optimally shift their portfolio weights towards those of the benchmark when volatility rises, putting downward price pressure on overweight stocks and upward pressure on underweight stocks. In quarters when volatility rises most (top quintile), a portfolio of aggregate-underweight minus aggregate-overweight stocks returns 3% to 8% per quarter depending on the risk adjustment.

We introduce a tractable dynamic monitoring technology into a continuous-time moral hazard problem and study the optimal long-term contract between principal and agent. Monitoring adds value by allowing the principal to reduce the intensity of performance-based incentives, reducing the likelihood of costly termination. We present a novel characterization of optimal dynamic incentive provision when performance-based incentives may decline continuously to zero. Termination happens in equilibrium only if its costs are relatively low.

We would like to share some of our general observations on activism, economics and the macro environment.

This paper explores the quantitative asset-pricing implications of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences, as introduced by Koszegi and Rabin, in an otherwise traditional Lucas-tree m model. I find that the model easily succeeds in matching the historical equity premium and its variability when the preference parameters are calibrated in line with micro evidence. The equity premium is high because expectations-based loss aversion makes uncertain fluctuations in consumption more painful.

The literature assessing whether mutual fund managers have skill typically regards market timing or stock picking skills as immutable attributes of a manager or fund. Yet, measures of these skills appear to vary over the business cycle. This paper offers a rational explanation, arguing that timing and picking are tasks. A skilled manager can choose how much of each task to attend to. Using tools from the rational inattention literature, we show that in booms, a manger should pick stocks and in recessions, he should pay more attention to his market timing.

The removal of “conservatism” as a qualitative characteristic from the Conceptual Framework of the IFRS has met with considerable resistance. This paper argues that conservatism has a role in accounting, but not as a qualitative characteristic. Rather, it serves as a defining principle for how accounting is to be done. It is thus central to resolving “recognition” and “measurement” issues in the Conceptual Framework, issues that determine what actually goes into the balance sheet and income statement but issues on which the Framework is particularly weak.