Research Lab

We follow a representative panel of millions of consumers in the U.S. from 2007 to 2017 and document several facts on the long-term effects of the Great Recession. There were about six million foreclosures in the ten-year period after Lehman's collapse. Owners of multiple homes accounted for 25% of these foreclosures, while comprising only 13% of the market. Foreclosures displaced homeowners, with most of them moving at least once. Only a quarter of foreclosed households regained homeownership, taking an average four years to do so.

A two-factor model explains returns for a variety of test portfolios, including those based of CAPM beta and those underlying factors in extant pricing models. The two-factor model involves the market factor and a factor based on firms’ fundamentals that has the feature of providing a hedge in down markets and a reverse-hedge in up markets. For a wide range of test portfolios, returns are described by sensitivity to the market factor with a beta of one and positions in the hedging factor.

We propose a new valuation method for private equity investments. First, we construct a cash-flow replicating portfolio for the private investment, using cash-flows on various listed equity and fixed income instruments. The second step values the replicating portfolio using a flexible asset pricing model that accurately prices the systematic risk in listed equity and fixed income instruments of different horizons.

Day trading coverage perpetuates myths about the ‘real job’ of investment management.

If you were to ask a discretionary investment fund manager to draw a Venn diagram of the set notation where digitalization meets discretionary investing, many would not show the sets as overlapping. Moreover, they believe that the investment world is bifurcated and the discretionary managers are independent of the quantitative. I would argue that not only are the two sets converging but that the quantitative managers pose an existential threat to the discretionary managers, or perhaps will ‘Pac-Man’-style consume the discretionary managers.

Current market pricing of risk is evidence of late-cycle behaviour.

We develop a dynamic model of platform economy where tokens serve as a means of payments among platform users and are issued to finance investment in platform productivity. Tokens are optimally issued to reward platform owners when the productivity-normalized token supply is low and burnt to boost the franchise value when the productivity-normalized normalized supply is high.

We predict and find that regulated firms' mandatory disclosures crowd out unregulated firms' voluntary disclosures. Consistent with information spillovers from regulated to unregulated firms, we document that unregulated firms reduce their own disclosures in the presence of regulated firms' disclosures. We further find that unregulated firms reduce their disclosures more the greater the strength of the regulatory information spillovers.