Research Lab

We study the descriptiveness of the “unravelling” prediction in the 1890s streetcar industry. In this historical setting, capital-intensive streetcar companies gain the opportunity to disclose their earnings to dispersed investors via a new, quarterly newspaper supplement. We document that a quarter of the companies withhold their earnings from the first supplement, inconsistent with the “unravelling” prediction.

According to conventional wisdom, banks play a special role in providing liquidity in bad times, while capital markets are used to fund investment in good times. Using microdata on corporate balance sheets following the COVID-19 shock, we provide evidence that instead, the corporate bond market is central to firms' access to liquidity, crowding out bank loans even when the crisis did not originate in the banking sector. We first show that, contrary to good times, bond issuance is used to increase holdings of liquid assets rather than for real investment.

The SEC should reform 144A regulation to prevent Wall Street streaking further ahead.

Current accounting practice expenses many investments in intangible assets to the income statement, confusing earnings from current revenues with investments to gain future revenues. This has led to increasing calls to book those investments to the balance sheet. Drawing on the relevant research, this paper proposes solutions for the accounting for intangible assets that contrast with balance sheet recognition, and compares them to current practice and the IFRS standards that dictate practice.

The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with existing models. Our key premise is that agents don't know the true distribution of shocks, but use data to estimate it non-parametrically. Then, transitory events, especially extreme ones, generate persistent changes in beliefs and macro outcomes.

In a fresh Covid-19 wave, Sally Beauty may beg for cash with nothing left for collateral.

We decompose the returns of five well-known anomalies into cash flow and discount rate news. Common patterns emerge across the five factor portfolios and their mean variance efficient (MVE) combination. Whereas discount rate news predominates in market returns, systematic cash flow news drives the returns of anomaly portfolios and their MVE combination with the market portfolio. Anomaly cash flow and discount rate shocks are largely uncorrelated with market cash flow and discount rate shocks and with business cycle fluctuations.

We study how small and medium enterprise (SME) lenders react to information about their competitors' contracting decisions. To isolate this learning from lenders' common reactions to unobserved shocks to fundamentals, we exploit the staggered entry of lenders into an information-sharing platform. Upon entering, lenders adjust their contract terms toward what others offer. This reaction is mediated by the distribution of market shares: lenders with higher shares or that operate in concentrated markets react less.

A key distinction between over-the-counter markets and centralized exchanges is the non-anonymity of the transactions. In this paper, we develop a model of non-anonymous trading and compare its prices, liquidity, and efficiency of asset allocations against a baseline with anonymous transactions. The non-anonymity improves the market liquidity by reducing the concerns for adverse selection. More specifically, it allows the market participants to learn valuable information about their counterparties through repeated interactions and consequently enables them to form trading relationships.