Faculty AI Research

Large long-run differences in average house price appreciation across metropolitan areas over the past 50 years have led to wide spatial dispersion in house prices. We show this can be explained in large part by inelastic supply of land in some attractive locations combined with an increasing number of high-income households nationally. The resulting high house prices crowd out lower-income households from living in high price growth superstar housing markets, inducing a right-shift in the local area income distribution.

Modern electronic markets have been characterized by a relentless drive toward faster decision making. Significant technological investments have led to dramatic improvements in latency, the delay between a trading decision and the resulting trade execution. We describe a theoretical model for the quantitative valuation of latency. Our model measures the trading frictions created by the presence of latency, by considering the optimal execution problem of a representative investor.

Past work has argued that comparison mindsets affect stereotyping: perceivers in a difference mindset stereotype less than those in a similarity mindset, contrasting their judgments of an individual away from their representation of the group. Here, we argue that the self can also act as a reference point, implying that the impact of comparison mindsets depends on what is focal.

This study uses patient-level data to analyze the effect of technological change embodied in pharmaceuticals on the longevity of elderly Americans. Previous patient-level studies could not control for important patient attributes such as education, income, and race; they did not provide estimates of the effect of using newer drugs on life expectancy, or of the overall cost-effectiveness of new drugs relative to old drugs; and they were not based on nationally representative samples of individuals.

At a time of historic challenges to the viability of the Eurozone, we assess the contribution of the EU and the Euro to equity market integration in Europe. We use a simple and essentially model free measure of bilateral market segmentation: two countries are segmented if there is a wide divergence in the valuations of their industries. We first establish that segmentation is significantly lower for EU versus non-EU members.

Can event marketing contribute to brand equity? A field study with consumers participating in different types of events indicates that event attendance increases brand equity and that brand experience is the most important mediator. Brand attitudes mediate the relation between events and brand equity only for certain types of events (namely, trade and street events, but not pop-up shops and sponsored events). Implications of the results for event marketing theory and practice are discussed.

Research has shown that subtle health claims used by food marketers influence pre-intake expectations, but no study has examined how they influence individuals' post-consumption experience of satiety after a complete meal and how this varies according to the value placed on food taste. In two experiments, we assess how labeling a pasta salad as "healthy" or "hearty" influences self-reported satiety, consumption volume, and subsequent consumption of another food.

Purpose Digitization is defined as the social transformation triggered by the massive adoption of digital technologies to generate, process, share and transact information. This paper seeks to present a methodology followed to calculate the Digitization Index, a concept originally developed by Booz & Company, the global management consulting firm, with the support of the authors.

This index consists of six elements capturing Ubiquity, Affordability, Reliability, Speed, Usability and Skill and 24 sub-indicators measuring tangible parameters of perceived digitization metrics.

Why do some firms, especially financial institutions, finance themselves so short-term? We develop an equilibrium model of maturity structure and show that extreme reliance on short-term financing may be the outcome of a maturity rat race: an individual creditor can have an incentive to shorten the maturity of his loan, allowing him to adjust his financing terms or pull out before other creditors can. This, in turn, causes all other creditors to shorten their maturity as well.

Institutions shape the nature and form of accounting rules; yet, a positive theory that links the standard-setting institution to observed standards has so far remained elusive. Here, we examine three stylized institutional forms: office-driven politicians, private-sector self-regulation and a mission-driven standard-setter. The form of the institution has dramatic consequences on the implemented disclosure regulation, and may lead to no-disclosure, full-disclosure, or conservative-like disclosures of only bad news.

The first-offer effect demonstrates that negotiators achieve better outcomes when making the first offer than when receiving it. The evidence, however, primarily derives from studies of Westerners without systematic power differences negotiating over one issue — contexts that may amplify the first-offer effect. Thus, the present research explored the effect across cultures, among negotiators varying in power, and in negotiations involving single and multiple issues.

If trade barriers are managed by inefficient institutions, trade liberalization can lead to greater-than-expected gains. We examine Chinese textile and clothing exports before and after the elimination of externally imposed export quotas. Both the surge in export volume and the decline in export prices following quota removal are driven by net entry. This outcome is inconsistent with a model in which quotas are allocated based on firm productivity, implying misallocation of resources.

Four studies explored whether perspective-taking and empathy would be differentially effective in mixed-motive competitions depending on whether the critical skills for success were more cognitively or emotionally based. Study 1 demonstrated that individual differences in perspective-taking, but not empathy, predicted increased distributive and integrative performance in a multiple-round war game that required a clear understanding of an opponent's strategic intentions.

We examine aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in 23 developed equity markets, measured using various methodologies, and we find no evidence of upward trends when we extend the sample until 2008. Instead, idiosyncratic volatility appears to be well described by a stationary autoregressive process that occasionally switches into a higher-variance regime that has relatively short duration. We also document that idiosyncratic volatility is highly correlated across countries. Finally, we examine the determinants of the time-variation in idiosyncratic volatility.

The diagnosticity of feelings in judgment depends not only on their representativeness and relevance, but also on people's trust in their feelings in general. Trust in feelings is the degree to which individuals believe that their feelings generally point toward the "right" direction in judgments and decisions.

We develop an analytically-tractable model integrating the dynamic theory of investment with dynamic optimal incentive contracting, thereby endogenizing financing constraints. Incentive contracting generates a history-dependent wedge between marginal and average q, and both vary over time as good (bad) performance relaxes (tightens) financing constraints. Financial slack, not cash flow, is the appropriate proxy for financing constraints.

Over the course of a repeated game, players often exhibit learning in selecting their best response. Research in economics and marketing has identified two key types of learning rules: belief and reinforcement. It has been shown that players use either one of these learning rules or a combination of them, as in the Experience-Weighted Attraction (EWA) model. Accounting for such learning may help in understanding and predicting the outcomes of games.

Using the 2007–2009 financial crisis as a laboratory, we analyze the transmission of crises to country-industry equity portfolios in 55 countries. We use an asset pricing framework with global and local factors to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings as indicative of contagion. We find evidence of systematic contagion from US markets and from the global financial sector, but the effects are very small.

Considerable theory regarding how employers learn about worker productivity remains untested. Examining the provision of objective estimates of teacher performance to school principals, we establish several facts supporting a simple Bayesian learning model with imperfect information. First, the correlation between performance estimates and prior beliefs rises with more precise objective estimates and more precise subjective priors. Second, new information exerts greater influence on posterior beliefs when it is more precise and when priors are less precise.

This work examines the impact of discharge decisions under uncertainty in a capacity-constrained high-risk setting: the intensive care unit (ICU). New arrivals to an ICU are typically very high-priority patients and, should the ICU be full upon their arrival, discharging a patient currently residing in the ICU may be required to accommodate a newly admitted patient. Patients so discharged risk physiologic deterioration, which might ultimately require readmission; models of these risks are currently unavailable to providers.

We introduce the pathwise optimization (PO) method, a new convex optimization procedure to produce upper and lower bounds on the optimal value (the “price”) of a high-dimensional optimal stopping problem. The PO method builds on a dual characterization of optimal stopping problems as optimization problems over the space of martingales, which we dub the martingale duality approach. We demonstrate via numerical experiments that the PO method produces upper bounds of a quality comparable with state-of-the-art approaches, but in a fraction of the time required for those approaches.

In many service industries, firms introduce three-part tariffs to replace or complement existing two-part tariffs. As opposed to two-part tariffs, three-part tariffs offer allowances, or “free” units of the service. Behavioral research suggests that attributes of a pricing plan may affect behavior beyond their direct cost implications and there is evidence that customers value “free” units above and beyond what would be expected based on the change to their budget constraint. Nonlinear pricing research, however, has abstracted from such an effect.

This work examines the impact of discharge decisions under uncertainty in a capacity-constrained high-risk setting: the intensive care unit (ICU). New arrivals to an ICU are typically very high-priority patients and, should the ICU be full upon their arrival, discharging a patient currently residing in the ICU may be required to accommodate a newly admitted patient. Patients so discharged risk physiologic deterioration, which might ultimately require readmission; models of these risks are currently unavailable to providers.

We consider a trader who aims to liquidate a large position in the presence of an arbitrageur who hopes to profit from the trader's activity. The arbitrageur is uncertain about the trader's position and learns from observed price fluctuations. This is a dynamic game with asymmetric information. We present an algorithm for computing perfect Bayesian equilibrium behavior and conduct numerical experiments. Our results demonstrate that the trader's strategy differs significantly from one that would be optimal in the absence of the arbitrageur.

The current research examines whether direct and vicarious identification with a low-status group affects consumers' desire for objects associated with status. Experiment 1 found that individuals who belonged to and identified with a status social category associated with relatively lower status (Blacks) exhibited an enhanced desire for high-status products compared to Blacks who did not identify with their race or individuals who belonged to a social category associated with higher status (Whites).

Seven studies show that compared to people with lower trust in their feelings, those with higher trust in their feelings were better able to predict the outcome of a wide variety of future events, including (a) future movie successes, (b) the 2008 U.S. Democratic Presidential nominee, (c) the winner of <em>American Idol</em>, (d) movements of the Dow Jones Index, and even (e) the weather.

The modal scientific approach in consumer research is to deduce hypotheses from existing theory about relationships between theoretic constructs, test those relationships experimentally, and then show “process” evidence via moderation and mediation. This approach has its advantages, but other styles of research also have much to offer. We distinguish among alternative research styles in terms of their philosophical orientation (theory-driven vs. phenomenon-driven) and their intended contribution (understanding a substantive phenomenon vs. building or expanding theory).

In recent years academic research has focused on understanding and modeling the survey response process. This paper examines an understudied systematic response tendency in surveys: the extent to which observed responses are subject to state dependence, i.e., response carryover from one item to another independent of specific item content. We develop a statistical model that simultaneously accounts for state dependence, item content, and scale usage heterogeneity.

Significant work time in the U.S. is lost each year due to worker absence, but evidence on the productivity losses from absenteeism remains scant due to difficulties with identification. In this paper, we use uniquely detailed data on the timing, duration, and cause of absences among teachers to address many of the potential biases from the endogeneity of worker absence.

Since its inception in 2006, the New York City (NYC) Task Force for Patients with Burns has continued to develop a city-wide and regional response plan that addressed the triage, treatment, transportation of 50/million (400) adult and pediatric victims for 3 to 5 days after a large-scale burn disaster within NYC until such time that a burn center bed and transportation could be secured. The following presents updated recommendations on these planning efforts. Previously published literature, project deliverables, and meeting documents for the period of 2009–2010 were reviewed.