Decision Making & Negotiations

Rational restrictions are derived for the values of American options on futures contracts. For these options, the optimal policy, in general, involves premature exercise. A model is developed for valuing options on futures contracts in a constant interest rate setting. Despite the fact that premature exercise may be optimal, the value of this American feature appears to be small and a European formula due to Black serves as a useful approximation. Finally, a model is developed to value these options in a world with stochastic interest rates.

Special algorithms have been developed to compute an optimal (s,S) policy for an inventory model with discrete demand and under standard assumptions (stationary data, a well-behaved one-period cost function, full backlogging and the average cost criterion). We present here an iterative algorithm for continuous demand distributions which avoids any form of prior discretization. The method can be viewed as a modified form of policy iteration applied to a Markov decision process with continuous state space. For phase-type distributions, the calculations can be done in closed form.

An extended series of economic studies has failed to find any statistically significant impact on national injury rates due to the OSHA. Two distinct explanations for this apparent failure of OSHA have been put forward in these studies. For the purposes of this study, the first of these explanations will be called the "noncompliance hypothesis" and the second will be labeled the "inefficiency hypothesis." The first of these hypotheses leads immediately to two dilemmas, which can only be resolved by expanding the range of issues considered in an analysis of OSHA.

This paper presents a macroeconomic model containing optimizing, inventory-holding firms that is consistent with a number of prominent empirical regularities concerning fluctuations in output, exchange rates, relative prices, and money. Prices are sticky, but they are not predetermined. Still, our model is consistent with exchange rate overshooting in the sense of Dornbusch. Typical sticky-price models allow a divergence between current production and current demand, but this divergence is never allowed to feed back into the model.

We consider a queueing system with two types of servers and two types of customers. General-use servers can provide service to either customer type while limited-use servers can be used only for one of the two. Though the apparent Markovian state space of this system is five-dimensional, we show that an aggregation results in an exact two-dimensional representation that is also Markovian. Matrix geometric theory is used to obtain approximations for the mean delay times and other measures of interest for each customer type.

This paper relates New York City's experience since 1975, a period characterized by local economic and fiscal crisis and a gradual recovery from it, to four prevailing themes in the contemporary literature of cities and public administration.

This paper establishes a simple existence proof for a solution to the optimality equations arising in finite undiscounted Markov Renewal Programs, by applying Brouwer's fixed point theorem to the so-called reduced value-iteration operator. Because of its simplicity, our approach lends itself to new existence results for more general models.