Labor Markets

Many workers in large factories in developing countries are internal migrants from rural areas. We develop a model in which migrants are poorly informed about working conditions upon beginning work but learn more as they gain experience in the industry. We then examine the relationship between workers' migration status and the working conditions they face in a household survey of garment workers in Bangladesh.

We construct new measures of country risk and sentiment as perceived by global investors and executives using textual analysis of the quarterly earnings calls of publicly listed firms around the world. Our quarterly measures cover 45 countries from 2002-2020. We use our measures to provide a novel characterization of country risk and to provide a harmonized definition of crises. We demonstrate that elevated perceptions of a country's riskiness are associated with significant falls in local asset prices and capital outflows, even after global financial conditions are controlled for.

Using rich administrative and household survey data, we document a series of new facts on earnings inequality and dynamics in a developing country with a large informal sector: Brazil. Since the mid-1990s, both inequality and volatility of earnings have declined significantly in Brazil's formal sector. Higher-order moments of the distribution of earnings innovations show cyclical movements in Brazil that are similar to those in developed countries like the US. Earnings mobility is comparatively high, especially at the bottom of the distribution.

This paper studies earnings inequality and dynamics in Argentina between 1996 and 2015. Following the 2001-2002 crisis, the Argentine economy transitioned from a low- to a high-inflation regime. At the same time, the number of collective bargaining agreements increased and the minimum wage adjustments became more frequent. We document that this macroeconomic transition was associated with a persistent decrease in the dispersion of real earnings and cyclical movements in higher-order moments of the distribution of earnings innovations.

Western stakeholders are increasingly demanding that multinationals sourcing from developing countries be accountable for working conditions upstream in their supply chains. In response, many multinationals privately enforce labor standards in these countries, but the effects of their interventions on local firms and workers are unknown. I partnered with 29 multinational retail and apparel firms to enforce local labor laws on their suppliers in Bangladesh. I implemented a field experiment with 84 garment factories, randomly enforcing a mandate for safety committees.

Economic theory suggests that leaders may play key roles in enabling social movements to overcome collective action problems through a variety of distinct mechanisms. Empirical tests of these theories outside the lab are scarce due to both measurement and identification challenges. We conduct multiple field experiments to test theories of leadership in the context of Myanmar's burgeoning labor union movement. We collaborate with a confederation of labor unions as it mobilizes garment workers in the run-up to a national minimum wage negotiation. We present three sets of results.

We cast new light on the influence of pensions on labor supply. To do so, we compare the retention patterns of pension-eligible workers to those of pension-ineligible ones, allowing us to non-parametrically identify the counterfactual in large, administrative data. Pensions exert a retentive force as workers approach the eligibility threshold and apply strong expulsive pressure thereafter (since employees lose pension wealth by remaining employed once eligible).

Since 1980, economic growth in the U.S. has been fastest in its largest cities. We show that a group of skill- and information-intensive service industries are responsible for all of this new urban bias in recent growth. We then propose a simple explanation centered around the interaction of three factors: the disproportionate reliance of these services on information and communication technology (ICT), the precipitous price decline for ICT capital since 1980, and the preexisting comparative advantage of cities in skilled services.

We study the nature of firm pay dynamics using matched employer-employee and firm financials data from Sweden. To this end, we propose and estimate a statistical model that extends the seminal framework by Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis (1999b) to account for idiosyncratically time-varying firm pay policies. We validate the model by showing that firm-year pay estimates are systematically related to measures of firm performance.