Macroeconomics

In this essay, I provide an overview of the scope and breadth of the field experiments in class size conducted prior to World War II, the motivations behind them, and how their experimental designs were crafted to deal with perceived sources of bias. I conclude with a discussion of how one might interpret the findings of these early experimental results alongside more recent research, and how research on class size has shifted towards using instrumental variables rather than field experiments to address the class size issue empirically.

Traditional explanations for indirect trade through an entrepot focus on savings in transport costs and the role of specialized agents in processing and distribution. We provide an alternative perspective based on the potential for entrepots to facilitate tariff evasion. Using data on direct exports to mainland China and indirect exports via Hong Kong SAR, we find that the indirect export rate rises with the Chinese tariff rate, despite the absence of any legal tax advantage to sending goods via Hong Kong SAR.

This paper offers a new approach to estimate countries' de facto exchange rate regimes, a synthesis of two techniques. One is a technique that the authors have used in the past to estimate implicit de facto weights when the hypothesis is a basket peg with little flexibility. The second is a technique used by others to estimate the de facto degree of exchange rate flexibility when the hypothesis is an anchor to the dollar or some other single major currency, but with a possibly substantial degree of flexibility around that anchor.

We revisit one of the central empirical findings of the political economy literature that higher income per capita causes democracy. Existing studies establish a strong cross-country correlation between income and democracy but do not typically control for factors that simultaneously affect both variables. In the post-war sample, we show that controlling for such factors by including country fixed effects removes the statistical association between income per capita and various measures of democracy.

Was the adoption of the euro accompanied by an increase in prices? Did it promote goods market arbitrage in the form of faster convergence to a common price? By comparing the experience of eurozone countries to non-euro European countries in a "difference-in-differences" specification, we net out effects on prices unrelated to the euro. We find neither evidence of significant price increases associated with the euro, nor evidence of a significant improvement in market integration.

A growing body of research has demonstrated an important relationship between work experience and teacher productivity. This implies that educational quality can be improved through reduction in turnover or acceleration of the return to experience. Mentoring has become an extremely popular policy to achieve these goals, but little is known about its general impact on teachers. I study the impact of mentoring on new teachers in New York City, which adopted a nationally recognized mentoring program in 2004.

We use six years of panel data on students and teachers to evaluate the effectiveness of recently hired teachers in the New York City public schools. On average,the initial certification status of a teacher has small impacts on student test performance. However, among those with the same experience and certification status,there are large and persistent differences in teacher effectiveness. Such evidence suggests that classroom performance during the first two years is a more reliable indicator of a teacher's future effectiveness.

In recent decades, sex offenders have been the targets of some of the most far reaching and novel crime legislation in the U.S. Two key innovations have been registration and notification laws which, respectively, require that convicted sex offenders provide valid contact information to law enforcement authorities, and that information on sex offenders be made public.

The gap between the qualifications of New York City teachers in high-poverty schools and low-poverty schools has narrowed substantially since 2000. Most of this gap-narrowing resulted from changes in the characteristics of newly hired teachers, and largely has been driven by the virtual elimination of newly hired uncertified teachers coupled with an influx of teachers with strong academic backgrounds in the Teaching Fellows program and Teach for America.