Corporate Finance

Research was conducted to investigate the value implications of the changes in annual earnings. It was assumed that a relationship exists between the persistence of earnings and the changes in stock prices associated with reported earnings innovations. The study yielded three major findings. Results showed that other data contained in annual financial statements can be used to evaluate pricing multipliers. Findings also revealed the variability of the persistence of earnings and the pricing multipliers indicated by financial statements.

The paper first characterizes the predictable components in excess rates of returns on major equity and foreign exchange markets using lagged excess returns, dividend yields, and forward premiums as instruments. Vector autoregressions (VARs) demonstrate one-step-ahead predictability and facilitate calculations of implied long-horizon statistics, such as variance ratios. Estimation of latent variable models then subjects the VARs to constraints derived from dynamic asset pricing theories.

This paper documents that firms face upward-sloping supply curves when they repurchase shares in a Dutch auction, and it analyzes the market reaction to these offers. The announcement price increase is highly correlated with the ultimate repurchase premium. Prices decline at expiration only for pro-rated offers. The cumulative return is positive and highly correlated with the repurchase premium, excepting pro-rated offers. Much of this price increase is consistent with movement along an upward-sloping supply curve. Trading volume around the Dutch auction parallels fixed-price repurchasses.

A signalling hypothesis of leveraged buyout (LBO) capital structure is examined, wherein the promoters of an LBO unambiguously convey their commitment to generate and distribute free cash flow to investors by assuming debt service obligations high enough to exhaust free cash flow during the initial phase of the LBO operation. The signalling equilibrium results in an equity value consistent with the promoters' expectations concerning free cash flow and permits them to keep the value released by the LBO.

Alternative ways of conducting inference and measurement for long-horizon forecasting are explored with an application to dividend yields as predictors of stock returns. Monte Carlo analysis indicates that the Hansen and Hodrick (1980) procedure is biased at long horizons, but the alternatives perform better. These include an estimator derived under the null hypothesis as in Richardson and Smith (1991), a reformulation of the regression as in Jegadeesh (1990), and a vector autoregression (VAR) as in Campbell and Shiller (1988), Kandel and Stambaugh (1988), and Campbell (1991).

The 1980s saw explosive activity in the arena of corporate takeovers. In this revealing study Frank Lichtenberg uses Census Bureau and other data on hundreds of business transactions during the 1970s and 1980s to examine the effects of changes in corporate control on productivity. He concludes that the restructuring of the U.S. economy during the past decade has contributed to higher productivity and increased international competitiveness.

Writing for the New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, Stephen Zeldes and Stephen O'Connell trace the history of the term "Ponzi Games" and define it as "a situation in which a borrower rolls over debt perpetually, covering all interest and/or principal repayments with additional borrowing. " They illustrate why a perpetual flow of new lenders is necessary to a Ponzi game, and discuss the link between Ponzi games and phenomena such as valued fiat money, asset price bubbles, and dynamic efficiency.

This article explores the differential measurement problems related to the earnings components by invoking the standard errors-in-variables perspective on estimated coefficients. A more traditional way of looking at accounting recognizes the process as one of measurements. That is, the analysis of transactions leads to line items in the financial statements, which in turn aggregate into the bottom line numbers: earnings and book value. The disclosures of the line items clearly suggest that the accountant is aware of the insufficiency of earnings and book values as determinants of values.

When futures contracts are settled with respect to underlying asset prices, received theory suggests that the differences between futures prices and implied forward prices (from the term structure) are strictly due to marking to market, ceteris paribus. Empirical evidence appears to indicate that such differences are small for contracts with short maturities. What happens when the futures contract settles to yields implied by future prices of underlying assets?