Columbia Business School Research

Both noncooperative and cooperative game theory have been applied to business strategy. We propose a hybrid noncooperative-cooperative game model, which we call a biform game. This is designed to formalize the notion of business strategy as making moves to try to shape the competitive environment in a favorable way. (The noncooperative component of a biform game models the strategic moves. The cooperative component models the resulting competitive environment.) We give biform models of various well-known business strategies.

A conditional one-factor model can account for the spread in the average returns of portfolios sorted by book-to-market ratios over the long run from 1926–2001. In contrast, earlier studies document strong evidence of a book-to-market effect using OLS regressions in the post-1963 sample. However, the betas of portfolios sorted by book-to-market ratios vary over time and in the presence of time-varying factor loadings, OLS inference produces inconsistent estimates of conditional alphas and betas.

This research addresses refutation of false beliefs formed on the basis of repeated exposure to advertisements. Experiment 1 explores belief in the refutation as a function of the perceptual details shared (alignment) between the claim and the refutation as manipulated by whether the original claim was direct (assertion) or indirect (implication). Experiment 2 then examines whether this effect will carry through to belief in the original claim after exposure to the refutation. Findings indicate that direct refutations of indirect claims are believed more than refutations of direct claims.

Theoretical work on the pricing of information reveals that competition between independent information sellers can result in prices that are negatively related to the quality or reliability of the information. The theory argues that when information products are unreliable (low quality), independent products become complements, and competition can increase prices. The goal of this study is to test empirically the theory's counterintuitive predictions with the help of an experimental market based on a business simulation.

American manufacturers often employ specialized agencies to create and produce advertising campaigns. This paper focuses on a critical juncture in the creation of American advertising: the meeting between the manufacturer (client) and the advertising agency, where advertising ideas are presented, discussed, and selected. Although the participants enter these meetings with the common goal of reaching agreement on the ideas that will be advanced to the next step in the creative development process, the attendees have additional, sometimes conflicting, professional and personal objectives.

In a decentralized supply chain, with long-term competition between independent retailers facing random demands and buying from a common supplier, how should wholesale and retail prices be specified in an attempt to maximize supply-chain-wide profits? We show what types of coordination mechanisms allow the decentralized supply chain to generate aggregate expected profits equal to the optimal profits in a centralized system, and how the parameters of these (perfect) coordination schemes can be determined.

We review queueing-theory methods for setting staffing requirements in service systems where customer demand varies in a predictable pattern over the day. Analyzing these systems is not straightforward, because standard queueing theory focuses on the long-run steady-state behavior of stationary models. We show how to adapt stationary queueing models for use in nonstationary environments so that time-dependent performance is captured and staffing requirements can be set.

Investment decisions frequently require coordination across multiple divisions of a firm. This paper explores a class of capital budgeting mechanisms in which the divisions issue reports regarding the anticipated profitability of proposed projects. To hold the divisions accountable for their reports, the central office ties the project acceptance decision to a system of cost allocations comprised of depreciation and capital charges.

Records of 793,794 employees eligible to participate in 647 defined contribution pension plans are studied. About 71% of them choose to participate in the plans, and of the participants, 12% choose to contribute the maximum allowed, $10,500.

This study offers the first empirical microeconomic analysis of the effectiveness of dollar debt and contract redenomination policies to mitigate adverse financial and relative price consequences from a large devaluation.

Profession- and job-related social events such as mixers are viewed by organizations and individuals as incubators of interpersonal ties, as arenas in which individuals can initiate new and different contacts. Theory and evidence on network dynamics, however, suggests that such outcomes may be unlikely, because past ties constrain future contacts, and because homophily inhibits contact between different types of people. We investigate whether guests at a social mixer "mix" despite these influences.

The relation between emotion and rationality is assessed by reviewing empirical findings from multiple disciplines. Two types of emotional phenomena are examined—incidental emotional states and integral emotional responses—and three conceptions of rationality are considered—logical, material, and ecological. Emotional states influence reasoning processes, are often misattributed to focal objects, distort beliefs in an assimilative fashion, disrupt self-control when intensely negative but do not necessarily increase risk-taking.

Ernst & Young hosted this 2007 roundtable with the goal of providing a better understanding of the challenges and best practices of using valuation analysis to support executive decisions. Panelists included Richard Ruback of the Harvard Business School, Trevor Harris of Morgan Stanley, Aileen Stockburger of Johnson & Johnson, Dino Mauricio of General Electric, Christian Roch of BNP Paribas, Ken Meyers of Siemens Corporation, and Charles Kantor of Lehman Brothers. Jeff Green of Ernst & Young moderated.

The Tuscan Lifestyles case (Mason, 2003) offers a simple twist on the standard view of how to value a newly acquired customer, highlighting how standard retention-based approaches to the calculation of expected customer lifetime value (CLV) are not applicable in a noncontractual setting.

Recent deliberations by both the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) in the United States have focused on how fair values of assets and liabilities should be measured. The issue of when, rather than how, fair value measurement should be applied is still far from resolved, however.

To study the effects of new information technologies (IT) on productivity, we have assembled a unique data set on plants in one narrowly defined industry?valve manufacturing?and analyze several plant-level mechanisms through which IT could promote productivity growth. The empirical analysis reveals three main results. First, plants that adopt new IT-enhanced equipment also shift their business strategies by producing more customized valve products.

This paper analyzes the incentive implications of executive hedge markets. The manager can promise the return from his shares to third parties in exchange for a fixed payment—swap contracts—and/or he can trade a customized financial security whose payoff is correlated with his firm-specific risk. The customized hedge security improves equilibrium effort incentives by diversifying—but not unwinding—the manager's firm-specific risk exposure.

This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict which portfolio managers will produce above market returns for their investors. This paper provides empirical evidence that sorting on the estimated alphas populates the top and bottom deciles not with the best and worst funds, but with those having the greatest estimation error.

While standard real options models assume that agents possess a constant rate of time preference, there is substantial evidence that agents are impatient about choices in the short term but are patient when choosing between long-term alternatives. We extend the real options framework to model the investment-timing decisions of entrepreneurs with time-inconsistent preferences.

We integrate the financial architecture into the theory of investment by building on two strands of literature: irreversible investment and debt pricing/capital structure. We extend the real options approach to investment, pioneered by Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz (1985) and Robert McDonald and Daniel Siegel (1986), to allow for capital structure decisions under strategic debt service. We also draw insights from corporate debt pricing/capital structure literature, which focuses on leverage and security pricing after investment has already been made (Robert C.

Entrepreneurs often face undiversifiable idiosyncratic risks from their business investments. We extend the standard real options approach to an incomplete markets environment and analyze the joint decisions of business investments, consumption/savings, and portfolio selection. For a lumpsum investment payoff and an agent with a sufficiently strong precautionary savings motive, an increase in volatility can accelerate investment, contrary to the standard real options analysis.

Recent studies suggest that the underperformance of IPOs in the post-1970 sample may be a small sample effect or "Peso" problem. That is, IPO underperformance may result from observing too few star performers ex-post than were expected ex-ante. We develop a model of IPO performance that captures this intuition by allowing returns to be drawn from mixtures of outstanding, benchmark, or poor performing states. We estimate the model under the null of no ex-ante average IPO underperformance and construct small sample distributions of various statistics measuring IPO relative performance.

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that it significantly predicts future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not.

We investigated two types of metaphors in stock market commentary. Agent metaphors describe price trajectories as volitional actions, whereas object metaphors describe them as movements of inanimate objects. Study 1 examined the consequences of commentators? metaphors for their investor audience. Agent metaphors, compared with object metaphors and non-metaphoric descriptions, caused investors to expect price trend continuance. The remaining studies examined preconditions, the features of a price trend that evoke agent vs. object metaphors.

This paper examines model specification issues and estimates diffusive and jump risk premia using S&P futures option prices from 1987 to 2003. We first develop a time series test to detect the presence of jumps in volatility, and find strong evidence in support of their presence. Next, using the cross section of option prices, we find strong evidence for jumps in prices and modest evidence for jumps in volatility based on model fit. The evidence points toward economically and statistically significant jump risk premia, which are important for understanding option returns.

Bias in the market for news is well-documented. Recent research in economics explains the phenomenon by assuming that consumers want to read (watch) news that is consistent with their tastes or prior beliefs rather than the truth. The present paper builds on this idea but recognizes that (i) besides "biased" consumers, there are also "conscientious" consumers whose sole interest is in discovering the truth, and (ii) consistent with reality, media bias is constrained by the truth. These two factors were expected to limit media bias in a competitive setting. Our results reveal the opposite.

In this note we present algorithms that compute, exactly or approximately, time-dependent waiting time tail probabilities and the time-dependent expected waiting time in M(t)/M/s(t) queuing systems.

In most marketing experiments, managerial decisions are not based directly on the estimates of the parameters, but rather on functions of these estimates. For example, many managerial decisions are driven by whether or not a feature is valued more than the price the consumer will be asked to pay. In other cases, some managerial decisions are weighed more heavily than others. The standard measures used to evaluate experimental designs (e.g., A-efficiency or D-efficiency) do not accommodate these phenomena.

Explicit presence of reorganization in addition to liquidation leads to conflicts of interest between borrowers and lenders. In the first-best outcome, reorganization adds value to both parties via higher debt capacity, lower credit spreads, and improved overall firm value. If control of the ex ante reorganization timing and the ex post decision to liquidate is given to borrowers, most of the benefits are appropriated by borrowers ex post. Lenders can restore the first-best outcome by seizing this control or by the ex post transfer of control rights.

Five experiments investigated how the possession and experience of power affects the initiation of competitive interaction. In Experiments 1a and 1b, high-power individuals displayed a greater propensity to initiate a negotiation than did low-power individuals. Three additional experiments showed that power increased the likelihood of making the first move in a variety of competitive interactions.

Polyhedral methods for choice-based conjoint analysis provide a means to adapt choice-based questions at the individual-respondent level and provide an alternative means to estimate partworths when there are relatively few questions per respondent as in a web-based questionnaire. However, these methods are deterministic and are susceptible to the propagation of response errors. They also assume, implicitly, a uniform prior on the partworths.

We consider a family of N items that are produced in, or obtained from, the same production facility. Demands are deterministic for each item and each period within a given horizon of T periods. If in a given period an order is placed, setup costs are incurred. The aggregate order size is constrained by a capacity limit. The objective is to find a lot-sizing strategy that satisfies the demands for all items over the entire horizon without backlogging, and that minimizes the sum of inventory-carrying costs, fixed-order costs, and variable-order costs.

The article explores the history of the U.S. Institutional Review Board (IRB) system and its penetration into local institutions. The author found that the Code of Federal Regulations Governing the Protection of Human Subjects in Research develops categories of risk for which various types of medical research are required. In this regard, research or reviews identified with the highest level of assessed risk can only be considered by a convened panel of IRB members.

In the present investigation, we build on prior research by examining perceptions of choices and their outcomes as a factor of independent and interdependent self–construals, the identity of the chooser, and the recipient of the choice. Results from two experiments suggest that independent selves prefer to be both chooser and choice recipient, whereas interdependent selves are more amenable to choosing for others and having others choose on their behalf.