Columbia Business School Research

We revisit one of the central empirical findings of the political economy literature that higher income per capita causes democracy. Existing studies establish a strong cross-country correlation between income and democracy but do not typically control for factors that simultaneously affect both variables. In the post-war sample, we show that controlling for such factors by including country fixed effects removes the statistical association between income per capita and various measures of democracy.

While empirical evidence alludes to the intertemporal nature of corporate voluntary disclosures, most of the existing theory analyzes firms' voluntary disclosure decisions within single-period settings. Introducing a repeated, multiperiod, disclosure setting, we study the extent to which firms' strategic disclosure behavior in the past affects their prosperity to provide voluntary disclosures in the future.

We examine whether a simple quantitative measure of language can be used to predict individual firms' accounting earnings and stock returns. Our three main findings are: (1) the fraction of negative words in firm-specific news stories forecasts low firm earnings; (2) firms' stock prices briefly underreact to the information embedded in negative words; and (3) the earnings and return predictability from negative words is largest for the stories that focus on fundamentals.

Individuals define themselves, at times, as who they are (e.g., a psychologist) and, at other times, as who they are not (e.g., not an economist). Drawing on social identity, optimal distinctiveness, and balance theories, four studies examined the nature of negational identity relative to affirmational identity. One study explored the conditions that increase negational identification and found that activating the need for distinctiveness increased the accessibility of negational identities.

Dynamic pricing offers the potential to increase revenues. At the same time, it creates an incentive for customers to strategize over the timing of their purchases. A firm should ideally account for this behavior when making its pricing and stocking decisions. In particular, we investigate whether it is optimal for a firm to create rationing risk by deliberately understocking products. Then, the resulting threat of shortages creates an incentive for customers to purchase early at higher prices. But when does such a strategy make sense?

Three experiments examine the relationship between past performance and strategies and risk attitudes in integrative negotiations. We hypothesized that past performance would affect negotiators' willingness to embrace two types of risk: strategic (i.e., information sharing in the present) versus contractual (i.e., uncertainty about the future). Consistent with the hypothesis that past success promotes strategic risk taking, dyads with a history of success were more integrative than dyads with a history of failure in Experiment 1.

Venture capitalists add value to portfolio firms by obtaining and transferring information about senior managers across firms over time. Information transfer occurs on a significant scale and takes place both among a single venture capitalist's portfolio firms and between different venture capitalists' firms via a network of venture capitalists, which venture capitalists use to locate and relocate managers. Cross-sectional differences are associated with differences in the intensity with which venture capitalists network.

We develop a model of customer channel migration and apply it to a retailer that markets over the Web and through catalogs. The model (1) identifies the key phenomena required to analyze customer migration, (2) shows how these phenomena can be modeled, and (3) develops an approach for estimating the model. The methodology is unique in its ability to accommodate heterogeneous customer responses to a large number of distinct marketing communications in a dynamic context.

Many practices aimed at cultivating multicultural competence in educational and organizational settings (e.g., exchange programs, diversity education in college, diversity management at work) assume that multicultural experience fosters creativity. In line with this assumption, the research reported in this article is the first to empirically demonstrate that exposure to multiple cultures in and of itself can enhance creativity.

Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates, expected inflation, or the inflation risk premium. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk, and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve. We find that the unconditional real rate curve in the U.S. is fairly flat around 1.3%. In one real rate regime, the real term structure is steeply downward sloping.

This research models the dynamics of customer relationships using typical transaction data. Our proposed model permits not only capturing the dynamics of customer relationships but also incorporating the effect of the sequence of customer-firm encounters on the dynamics of customer relationships and the subsequent buying behavior. Our approach to modeling relationship dynamics is structurally different from existing approaches.

Was the adoption of the euro accompanied by an increase in prices? Did it promote goods market arbitrage in the form of faster convergence to a common price? By comparing the experience of eurozone countries to non-euro European countries in a "difference-in-differences" specification, we net out effects on prices unrelated to the euro. We find neither evidence of significant price increases associated with the euro, nor evidence of a significant improvement in market integration.

This paper compares centralized and decentralized coordination when managers are privately informed and communicate strategically. We consider a multi-divisional organization in which decisions must be adapted to local conditions but also coordinated with each other. Information about local conditions is dispersed and held by self-interested division managers who communicate via cheap talk. The only available formal mechanism is the allocation of decision rights. We show that a higher need for coordination improves horizontal communication but worsens vertical communication.

Laboratory experiments are an important methodology in economics, especially in the field of behavioral economics. However, it is still debated to what extent results from laboratory experiments are informative about behavior in field settings. One highly important question about the external validity of experiments is whether the same individuals act in experiments as they would in the field. This paper presents evidence on how individuals behave in donation experiments and how the same individuals behave in a naturally occurring decision situation on charitable giving.

We propose a framework for designing adaptive choice-based conjoint questionnaires that are robust to response error. It is developed based on a combination of experimental design and statistical learning theory principles. We implement and test a specific case of this framework using Regularization Networks. We also formalize within this framework the polyhedral methods recently proposed in marketing.

This is an experimental study of negative reciprocity in the case of multiple reciprocators. We use a three-player power-to-take game where a proposer is matched with two responders. We compare a treatment in which responders are anonymous to each other (strangers) with one in which responders know each other from outside the lab (friends). We focus on the responders' decisions, beliefs, and emotions.

Successful efficient rare-event simulation typically involves using importance sampling tailored to a specific rare event. However, in applications one may be interested in simultaneous estimation of many probabilities or even an entire distribution. In this paper, we address this issue in a simple but fundamental setting.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently issued a call for comment on a proposal to accept financial statements prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) without reconciliation to U.S. GAAP. Accounting researchers have attempted to assess the quality of IFRS using different methods and criteria. While we are skeptical of drawing direct conclusions about the SEC’s proposal based on this research, there is adequate evidence that both IFRS and U.S. GAAP provide useful information to investors and other users of financial statements.

The separation of ownership and control allows controlling shareholders to pursue private benefits. We develop an analytically tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study asset pricing and welfare implications of imperfect investor protection. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts that countries with weaker investor protection have more incentives to overinvest, lower Tobin's q, higher return volatility, larger risk premia, and higher interest rate.

The present paper seeks to explain varying levels of assertiveness in interpersonal conflict and negotiations with assertiveness expectancies, idiosyncratic predictions people make about the social and instrumental consequences of assertive behavior. This account complements motivation-based models of assertiveness and competitiveness, suggesting that individuals may possess the same social values (e.g., concern for relationships) but show dramatically different assertiveness due to different assumptions about behavioral consequences.

We identify gaps and propose several directions for future research in preference measurement. We structure our argument around a framework that views preference measurement as comprising three interrelated components: (1) the problem that the study is ultimately intended to address; (2) the design of the preference measurement task and the data collection approach; (3) the specification and estimation of a preference model, and the conversion into action. Conjoint analysis is only one special case within this framework.

This paper develops a simple and systematic approach for obtaining bounds on stationary expectations of Markov processes. Given a function f which one is interested in evaluating, the main idea is to find a function g that satisfies a certain "mean drift" inequality with respect to f, which in turn leads to bounds on the stationary expectation of the latter.

Business friendships are increasingly common. Research in organizational behavior has identified a number of benefits to career and organizational performance of these relationships. These instrumental benefits derive from the affective qualities of these relationships, through the mechanisms of trust, empathy and sympathy. Yet the combination of instrumentality and affect produces a number of difficulties for business friends.

This paper compares centralized and decentralized price setting by a firm that sells a single product in two markets, but is constrained to set one price (e.g., due to arbitrage). Each market is characterized by a different linear demand function, and demand conditions are privately observed by a local manager. This manager only cares about profits in his own market and, as a result, communicates his information strategically. Our main results link organizational design to market demand.

We examine the association between CEO reputation (proxied by the extent of press coverage) and the quality of the firm's earnings (proxied by two accruals-based measures). We test three explanations for an association between these constructs: the efficient contracting hypothesis suggests that reputed CEOs are associated with good earnings quality, while the rent extraction and matching explanations argue that reputed CEOs are associated with poor earnings quality.

Two experiments investigated the hypothesis that strategic behavioral mimicry can facilitate negotiation outcomes. Study 1 used an employment negotiation with multiple issues, and demonstrated that strategic behavioral mimicry facilitated outcomes at both the individual and dyadic levels: Negotiators who mimicked the mannerisms of their opponents both secured better individual outcomes, and their dyads as a whole also performed better when mimicking occurred compared to when it did not.

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of signal singularities from indirect and noisy observations. Here by singularity, we mean a discontinuity (change-point) of the signal or of its derivative. The model of indirect observations we consider is that of a linear transform of the signal, observed in white noise. The estimation problem is analyzed in a minimax framework. We provide lower bounds for minimax risks and propose rate-optimal estimation procedures.

We focus on the problem of adaptive estimation of signal singularities from indirect and noisy observations. A typical example of such a singularity is a discontinuity (change-point) of the signal or of its derivative. We develop a change-point estimator which adapts to the unknown smoothness of a nuisance deterministic component and to an unknown jump amplitude. We show that the proposed estimator attains optimal adaptive rates of convergence. A simulation study demonstrates reasonable practical behavior of the proposed adaptive estimates.

We consider a revenue management, network capacity control problem in a setting where heterogeneous customers choose among the various products offered by a firm (e.g., different flight times, fare classes, and/or routings). Customers may therefore substitute if their preferred products are not offered. These individual customer choice decisions are modeled as a very general stochastic sequence of customers, each of whom has an ordered list of preferences. Minimal assumptions are made about the statistical properties of this demand sequence.

A German broker's clients place similar speculative trades and therefore tend to be on the same side of the market in a given stock during a given day, week, month, and quarter. Aggregate liquidity effects, short sale constraints, the systematic execution of limit orders (coordinated through price movements) or the correlated trading of other investors who pick off retail limit orders, do not fully explain why retail investors trade similarly. Correlated market orders lead returns, presumably due to persistent speculative price pressure.

This study investigates the effects of prior experience, task instruction, and choice on creative performance. Although extant research suggests that giving people choice in how they approach a task could enhance creative performance, we propose that this view needs to be circumscribed.

This paper examines coworker networks in the American, Chinese, German, and Spanish divisions of a global retail bank. Because the bank has standardized structure and policies across countries, it is possible to examine how norms rooted in national culture impact on various features of informal ties. We propose that cultures vary in the models on which coworker interaction norms are based, with market, family, law, and friendship relations serving as alternative templates.

Purpose — The purpose of this research is to examine how consumers form beliefs and evaluate derivatives (e.g. handheld computers) and branded derivatives (e.g. Palm handheld computers). The aim is to study how consumers combine two categories (e.g. ?handheld products? and ?computers?) to form beliefs, how the similarity between the categories influences beliefs, how the addition of a brand changes beliefs, and how the presence of brand associations impacts on evaluations.