Columbia Business School Research

This paper examines continuous-time stochastic volatility models incorporating jumps in returns and volatility. We develop a likelihood-based estimation strategy and provide estimates of parameters, spot volatility, jump times, and jump sizes using S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index returns. Estimates of jump times, jump sizes, and volatility are particularly useful for identifying the effects of these factors during periods of market stress, such as those in 1987, 1997, and 1998. Using formal and informal diagnostics, we find strong evidence for jumps in volatility and jumps in returns.

Customized communications have the potential to reduce information overload and aid customer decisions, and the highly relevant products that result from customization can form the cornerstone of enduring customer relationships. In spite of such potential benefits, few models exist in the marketing literature to exploit the Internet's unique ability to design communications or marketing programs at the individual level. We develop a statistical and optimization approach for customization of information on the Internet.

We hypothesized that the activation of a counterfactual mind-set minimizes decision errors resulting from the failure of groups to seek disconfirming information to test an initial hypothesis. To test this hypothesis, we conducted two experiments examining the decision making processes of groups. The task for both experiments was modeled after the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, and groups had to actively seek disconfirmatory information to make a correct decision.

We study a principal-agent model of moral hazard in which the principal has an abandonment option. The option to abandon a project midstream limits a firm's downside risk. From a consumption (production) perspective, the option is clearly beneficial. However, from an incentive perspective, the option can be costly. Removing the lower tail of the project's underlying cash flow distribution also eliminates the information it contains about an agent's (unobservable) productive input.

Many telephone call centers that experience cyclic and random customer demand adjust their staffing over the day in an attempt to provide a consistent target level of customer service. The standard and widely used staffing method, which we call the stationary independent period by period (SIPP) approach, divides the workday into planning periods and uses a series of stationary independent Erlang-c queuing models—one for each planning period—to estimate minimum staffing needs.

We show that network advantages constitute an important intangible asset that goes unrecognized in the financial statements. For a sample of e-commerce firms, we find that network advantages created by Web site traffic have substantial explanatory power for stock prices over and above traditional summary accounting measures such as earnings and book value of equity. Also, network advantages are positively associated with one-year-ahead and two-year-ahead earnings forecasts provided by equity analysis.

This paper develops formulas for pricing caps and swaptions in LIBOR market models with jumps. The arbitrage-free dynamics of this class of models were characterized in Glasserman and Kou [9] in a framework allowing for very general jump processes. For computational purposes, it is convenient to model jump times as Poisson processes; however, the Poisson property is not preserved under the changes of measure commonly used to derive prices in the LIBOR market model framework.

The purpose of this paper is to understand buyer/seller adoption dynamics in independent, buyer-side B2B exchanges. In a stylized model, we assume that the main role of the exchange is to reduce search costs for buyers. Buyers and sellers enter or exit the exchange based on the relative economic surplus (loss) they receive inside vs. outside the exchange. We contrast two situations: one where participants' switching cost to join the institution is negligible and another, in which it is significant.

Abstract: In many of the numerical methods for pricing American options based on the dynamic programming approach, the most computationally intensive part can be formulated as the summation of Gaussians. Though this operation usually requires O(NN') work when there are N' summations to compute and the number of terms appearing in each summation is N, we can reduce the amount of work to O(N+N') by using a technique called the fast Gauss transform.

We estimate the relation between stock option (ESO) grants to the top five executives and future earnings to examine whether incentive alignment or rent extraction by top managers explains option granting behavior. The future operating income associated with a dollar of Black-Scholes value of an ESO grant is $3.71. To understand the source of these positive payoffs, we parse out ESO grant values into components predicted by economic determinants of option grants, governance quality, and a residual grant value.

The push for increased transparency in financial reporting and corporate governance serves shareholders only up to a point. The problem of assessing the value of transparency to shareholders is subtle because both the level and pattern of earnings can convey information. Even when earnings management conceals information, it can be beneficial to shareholders. Distinguishing between ex ante and ex post efficiency underscores the advantages of achieving a balance between transparency and privacy in corporations.

This paper is concerned with dynamic control of stochastic processing networks. Specifically, it follows the so called heavy traffic approach, where a Brownian approximating model is formulated, an associated Brownian optimal control problem is solved, the solution of which is then used to define an implementable policy for the original system. A major challenge is the step of policy translation from the Brownian to the discrete network. This paper addresses this problem by defining a general and easily implementable family of continuous-review tracking policies.

Something is wrong with the global financial system. One might think the system would shift money from rich countries, where capital is in abundance, to those where it is scarce, while transferring risk from poor countries to rich ones, which are most able to bear it. A well-functioning global financial system would provide money to countries in their times of need, thereby contributing to global economic stability.

This paper analyzes the issue costs and initial pricing of bonds in the international market. In particular, we investigate the determinants of three components of issue costs: underwriter fee, underwriter spread (the difference between the offering price and the guaranteed price to the issuer), and underpricing (the difference between the market price and the offering price). Total underwriter compensation increases with the bonds’ credit risk and maturity, but it is insignificantly related to issue size.

This paper studies the capital budgeting process in a setting where a manager is privately informed about the profitability of an investment project and enjoys nonpecuniary benefits of control ("empire benefits"). I characterize the optimal required rate of return and show that a delegation scheme with residual income-based compensation can replicate the benchmark performance achieved under centralization. The main result of the paper is that the optimal capital charge rate for computing residual income always exceeds the required rate of return as a result of empire benefits.

Much has been said about the failing policies of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this essay, I attempt to explain why the IMF has pursued policies that in many cases not only failed to promote the stated objectives of enhancing growth and stability, but were probably counterproductive and even flew in the face of a considerable body of theoretical and empirical work that suggested these policies would be counterproductive. I argue that the root of the problem lies in the IMF's system of governance.

The article examines the price implications of corporate disclosures as well as other information releases. Corporate disclosures are an important source of information for investors. For dividend announcements, the price implications appear straightforward: price is the present value of expected future dividends. Hence, to the extent that future dividends are related to current dividends, dividend changes should trigger price responses. Other corporate disclosures, such as earnings, may also be viewed as proxies for future dividends.

Financial economists have debated the impact of dividend taxes on firm valuation for decades, but existing empirical evidence is mixed. In this study, we avoid certain complications inherent in previous empirical work by exploiting institutional characteristics of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). For REITs, dividend policy is largely non-discretionary, share repurchases are not tax advantaged relative to dividends, and the market value of a firm's assets is relatively transparent to investors.

Although leading indicators are becoming increasingly important for equity valuation, disclosures of such indicators suffer from the absence of GAAP related guidance on content and presentation. We explicitly examine (i) whether one leading indicator — order backlog — predicts future earnings, and (ii) whether market participants correctly incorporate such predictive ability in determining share prices.

Emerging markets have long posed a challenge for finance. Standard models are often ill suited to deal with the specific circumstances arising in these markets. However, the interest in emerging markets has provided impetus for both the adaptation of current models to new circumstances in these markets and the development of new models. The model of market integration and segmentation is our starting point. Next, we emphasize the distinction between market liberalization and integration. We explore the financial effects of market integration as well as the impact on the real economy.

We propose and test new adaptive question design and estimation algorithms for partial-profile conjoint analysis. Polyhedral question design focuses questions to reduce a feasible set of parameters as rapidly as possible. Analytic center estimation uses a centrality criterion based on consistency with respondents' answers. Both algorithms run with no noticeable delay between questions. We evaluate the proposed methods relative to established benchmarks for question design (random selection, D-efficient designs, adaptive conjoint analysis) and estimation (hierarchical Bayes).

Four studies explored behavioral forecasting and the effect of competitive expectations in the context of negotiations. Study 1 examined negotiators' forecasts of how they would behave when faced with a very competitive versus a less competitive opponent and found that negotiators believed they would become more competitive.

In this research, we tested the effects of chronic and temporary sources of accessibility on impression formation. Although some research suggests that chronicity amplifies temporary effects because of greater susceptibility to external primes, other research suggests that chronicity masks temporary effects because of redundance. We demonstrate in a thought listing study that in the domain of gender stereotypes, trait stereotypes may be routinely applied by those with a medium or high tendency to stereotype women, making external primes redundant.

This essay concerns the process of globalization, the integration of economies around the world which has put new demands on nation-states at the very same time that, in many ways, it has reduced their capacities to deal with those demands. The nation-state today is squeezed, on the one side, by the forces of global economics and, on the other side, by the political demands for devolution of power.

For many years, average bed occupancy level has been the primary measure that has guided hospital bed capacity decisions at both policy and managerial levels. Even now, the common wisdom that there is an excess of beds nationally has been based on a federal target of 85% occupancy that was developed about 25 years ago. This paper examines data from New York sate and uses queueing analysis to estimate bed unavailability in intensive care units (ICUs) and obstetrics units. Using various patient delay standards, units that appear to have insufficient capacity are identified.

There is a long normative 'Social Contract' tradition that attempts to characterize ex-post income in equalities that are agreeable to all 'behind a veil of ignorance.' This paper takes a similar normative approach to characterize social decision-making procedures. It is shown that quite generally some form of majority-voting is preferred to unanimity 'behind a veil of ignorance' whenever society faces dead weight costs in making compensating transfers.