Faculty AI Research

In this article, we dissect changes in the composition of Indian imports following its 1991 trade liberalization to illustrate the potential scope for previously unavailable inputs to bolster the performance of domestic firms. The analysis reveals that trade reform spurred imports of previously unavailable products and varieties in many products that arguably can be characterized as important inputs for manufacturing firms. New imported inputs in large extent originated from more advanced countries and new imported varieties exhibited higher unit values relative to existing imports.

Previous research concludes that options are mispriced based on the high average returns, CAPM alphas, and Sharpe ratios of various put selling strategies. One criticism of these conclusions is that these benchmarks are ill suited to handle the extreme statistical nature of option returns generated by nonlinear payoffs. We propose an alternative way to evaluate the statistical significance of option returns by comparing historical statistics to those generated by option pricing models.

Individuals often honor sunk costs by increasing their commitment to failing courses of action. Since this escalation of commitment is fueled by self-justification processes, a widely offered prescription for preventing escalation is to have separate individuals make the initial and subsequent resource allocation decisions. In contrast to this proposed remedy, four experiments explored whether a psychological connection between two decision-makers leads the second decision-maker to invest further in the failing program orchestrated by the initial decision-maker.

We present a novel role of affect in the expression of culture. Four experiments tested whether individuals' affective states moderate the expression of culturally normative cognitions and behaviors. We consistently found that value expressions, self-construals, and behaviors were less consistent with cultural norms when individuals were experiencing positive rather than negative affect. Positive affect allowed individuals to explore novel thoughts and behaviors that departed from cultural constraints, whereas negative affect bound people to cultural norms.

While residents receive similar benefits from many local government programs, only about one-third of all households have children in public schools. We argue that capitalization of school spending into house prices can encourage even childless residents to support spending on schools. We identify a proxy for the extent of capitalization — the supply of land available for new development — and show that towns in Massachusetts with little undeveloped land have larger changes in house prices in response to a plausibly exogenous spending shock.

We consider the one-armed bandit problem of Woodroofe [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 74 (1979) 799–806], which involves sequential sampling from two populations: one whose characteristics are known, and one which depends on an unknown parameter and incorporates a covariate. The goal is to maximize cumulative expected reward. We study this problem in a minimax setting, and develop rate-optimal polices that involve suitable modifications of the myopic rule.

Nearly every decision a person makes is restricted in some way. While we are painfully aware of some of these restrictions, others go largely undetected. This paper presents a conceptual framework for understanding how restrictions interact with situational and individual characteristics, as well as goals to influence behavior. Implications for overlooked research opportunities in choice modeling are presented and discussed.

This paper introduces new variance reduction techniques and computational improvements to Monte Carlo methods for pricing American-style options. For simulation algorithms that compute lower bounds of American option values, we apply martingale control variates and introduce the local policy enhancement, which adopts a local simulation to improve the exercise policy. For duality-based upper bound methods, specifically the primal-dual simulation algorithm, we have developed two improvements.

As the diversity in end-user devices and networks grows, it becomes important to be able to efficiently and adaptively serve media content to different types of users. A key question surrounding adaptive media is how to do Rate-Distortion optimized scheduling. Typically, distortion is measured with a single distortion measure, such as the Mean-Squared Error compared to the original high resolution image or video sequence.

We investigate the effect of discrete sampling and asset price jumps on fair variance and volatility swap strikes. Fair discrete volatility strikes and fair discrete variance strikes are derived in different models of the underlying evolution of the asset price: the Black-Scholes model, the Heston stochastic volatility model, the Merton jump-diffusion model and the Bates and Scott stochastic volatility and jump model.

We present a short geometric proof for the price of anarchy results that have recently been established in a series of papers on selfish routing in multicommodity flow networks. This novel proof also facilitates two new types of results: On the one hand, we give pseudoapproximation results that depend on the class of allowable cost functions. On the other hand, we derive improved bounds on the inefficiency of Nash equilibria for situations in which the equilibrium travel times are within reasonable limits of the free-flow travel times.

We establish five facts about prices in the U.S. economy: 1) For consumer prices, the median frequency of non-sale price change is roughly half of what it is including sales (9-12% per month versus 19-20% per month for identical items; 11-13% per month versus 21-22% per month including product substitutions). The median frequency of price change for finished goods producer prices is comparable to that of consumer prices excluding sales. 2) One-third of non-sale price changes are price decreases.

Four studies investigated whether activating a social identity can lead group members to choose options that are labeled in words associated with that identity. When political identities were made salient, Republicans (but not Democrats) became more likely to choose the gamble or investment option labeled "conservative." This shift did not occur in a condition in which the same options were unlabeled.

Previous research suggests that narrow identification with one's own racial group impedes coalition building among minorities. Consistent with this research, the 2008 Democratic primary was marked by racial differences in voting preferences: Black voters overwhelmingly preferred Barack Obama, a Black candidate, and Latinos and Asians largely favored Hillary Clinton, a White candidate. We investigated one approach to overcoming this divide: highlighting one's negational identity.

The authors propose that culture affects people through their perceptions of what is consensually believed. Whereas past research has examined whether cultural differences in social judgment are mediated by differences in individuals’ personal values and beliefs, this article investigates whether they are mediated by differences in individuals’ perceptions of the views of people around them.

This research examines how the reliance on emotional feelings as a heuristic influences the proposal of offers in negotiations. Results from three experiments based on the classic ultimatum game show that, compared to proposers who do not rely on their feelings, proposers who rely on their feelings make less generous offers in the standard ultimatum game, more generous offers in a variant of the game allowing responders to make counteroffers, and less generous offers in the dictator game where no responses are allowed.

Portfolio credit derivatives are contracts that are tied to an underlying portfolio of defaultable reference assets and have payoffs that depend on the default times of these assets. The hedging of credit derivatives involves the calculation of the sensitivity of the contract value with respect to changes in the credit spreads of the underlying assets, or, more generally, with respect to parameters of the default-time distributions. We derive and analyze Monte Carlo estimators of these sensitivities.

Much of the puzzle of underissuance of national bank notes can be resolved for the period 1880–1900 (the period when detailed, bank-level data are available) by disaggregating, taking account of regulatory limits, and considering differences in banks' opportunity costs cross-sectionally and over time. Banks with poor lending opportunities issued more, within regulatory limits. Banks tended to issue more when bond yields (the backing for notes) were high relative to lending opportunities.

We examine the effect of regime change on privatization. In the 2004 Indian election, the pro-reform BJP was unexpectedly defeated by a less reformist coalition. Stock prices of government-controlled companies that had been slated for privatization by the BJP dropped 3.5% relative to private firms. Government-controlled companies that were under study for possible privatization fell 7.5% relative to private firms. This is consistent with investor belief of a "point of no return," where advanced reforms are more difficult to reverse.

Drawing on the motivated cognition literature, we examine how self-affirmation processes influence self-justification needs and escalation decisions. Study 1 found that individuals with a larger pool of affirmational resources (high self-esteem) reduced their escalation compared to those with fewer affirmational resources (low self-esteem). Study 2 extended these findings by demonstrating that individuals also de-escalated their commitments when they were provided an opportunity to affirm on an important value.

Three experiments examine how power affects consumers' spending propensities. By integrating literatures suggesting that (a) powerlessness is aversive, (b) status is one basis of power, and (c) products can signal status, the authors argue that low power fosters a desire to acquire products associated with status to compensate for lacking power. Supporting this compensatory hypothesis, results show that low power increased consumers' willingness to pay for auction items and consumers' reservation prices in negotiations but only when products were status related.

This article discusses research into the effect of gender role expectations in distributional negotiations. The differences between the gender effects in personally oriented negotiations and those undertaken on behalf of another party are considered. This hypothesis is indicated by research suggesting that community oriented behaviors are feminine while acting on personal agency is considered masculine. The role of anticipated responses, particularly the anticipation of backlash, in determining the gendered aspects of distributional negotiation is explored.

Traditional explanations for indirect trade through an entrepot focus on savings in transport costs and the role of specialized agents in processing and distribution. We provide an alternative perspective based on the potential for entrepots to facilitate tariff evasion. Using data on direct exports to mainland China and indirect exports via Hong Kong SAR, we find that the indirect export rate rises with the Chinese tariff rate, despite the absence of any legal tax advantage to sending goods via Hong Kong SAR.

What is the effect of option categorization on choosers' satisfaction? A combination of field and laboratory experiments reveals that the mere presence of categories, irrespective of their content, positively influences the satisfaction of choosers who are unfamiliar with the choice domain. This "mere categorization effect" is driven by a greater number of categories signaling greater variety amongst the available options, which allows for a sense of self-determination from choice.

This paper offers a new approach to estimate countries' de facto exchange rate regimes, a synthesis of two techniques. One is a technique that the authors have used in the past to estimate implicit de facto weights when the hypothesis is a basket peg with little flexibility. The second is a technique used by others to estimate the de facto degree of exchange rate flexibility when the hypothesis is an anchor to the dollar or some other single major currency, but with a possibly substantial degree of flexibility around that anchor.

We investigate the effects of babyfaceness on the trustworthiness and judgments of a company's chief executive officer in a public relations crisis. Experiment 1 demonstrates boundary conditions for the babyfaceness-honesty trait inference and its influence on company evaluations. Experiment 2 shows that trait inferences of honesty are drawn spontaneously but are corrected in the presence of situational evidence (a severe crisis) if cognitive resources are available.

This paper considers a profit-maximizing make-to-order manufacturer that offers multiple products to a market of price and delay sensitive users, using a model that captures three aspects of particular interest: first, the joint use of dynamic pricing and lead-time quotation controls to manage demand; second, the presence of a dual sourcing mode that can expedite orders at a cost; and third, the interaction of the aforementioned demand controls with the operational decisions of sequencing and expediting that the firm must employ to optimize revenues and satisfy the quoted lead times.