Faculty AI Research

People's tendency to rate themselves as above average is often taken as evidence of undue self-regard. Yet, everyday experience is occasioned with feelings of inadequacy and insecurity. How can these 2 experiences be reconciled? Across 12 studies (N = 2,474; including 4 preregistered studies) we argue that although people do indeed believe that they are above average they also hold themselves to standards of comparison that are well above average.

Failing to refinance a mortgage can cost a borrower thousands of dollars. Based on administrative data from a large financial institution, we show that around 50% of borrowers leave thousands of dollars on the table by not refinancing. Survey data indicate that, among all the behavioral factors examined, only suspicion of banks motives is consistently related to the probability of accepting a refinancing offer. Finally, we report the results of three field experiments showing that enticing offers made by banks fail to increase participation and may even deepen suspicion.

The authors present empirical evidence that borrowers, consciously or not, leave traces of their intentions, circumstances, and personality traits in the text they write when applying for a loan. This textual information has a substantial and significant ability to predict whether borrowers will pay back the loan above and beyond the financial and demographic variables commonly used in models predicting default.

Consumers often have multiple goals that are active simultaneously and make choices to satisfy those goals. However, no work to date has studied how people choose when all available options serve a goal (e.g., a choice-set goal) that conflicts with another goal they hold (e.g., an incidental goal). We demonstrate that in such contexts, consumers are more likely to choose the option that is most instrumental for attaining the choice-set goal, even when that option poses the greatest violation of the incidental goal.

Organizations often empower employees at all levels to propose innovation ideas that rely on their first-hand knowledge of their standard task (i.e. employee-initiated innovation). Many, however, struggle with motivating employees to develop innovative ideas that may benefit the firm, especially when the standard tasks for which employees are hired, measured and incentivized do not explicitly include innovation.

When deciding whether to buy an item, consumers sometimes think about other ways they could spend their money. Past research has explored how increasing the salience of outside options (i.e., alternatives not immediately available in the choice set) influences purchase decisions, but whether the type of alternative considered systematically affects buying behavior remains an open question. Ten studies find that relative to considering alternatives that are similar to the target, considering dissimilar alternatives leads to a greater decrease in purchase intent for the target.

Shadow bank market share in residential mortgage origination nearly doubled from 2007 to 2015, with particularly dramatic growth among online "fintech" lenders. We study how two forces, regulatory differences and technological advantages, contributed to this growth.

Internet recommender systems are popular in contexts that include heterogeneous consumers and numerous products. In such contexts, product features that adequately describe all the products are often not readily available. Content-based systems therefore rely on user-generated content such as product reviews or textual product tags to make recommendations.

Many modern business cycle models use uncertainty shocks to generate aggregate fluctuations. However, uncertainty is measured in a variety of ways. Our analysis shows that the measures are not the same, either statistically or conceptually, raising the question of whether fluctuations in them are actually generated by the same phenomenon. We propose a mechanism that generates realistic micro dispersion (cross-sectional variance of firm-level outcomes), higher-order uncertainty (disagreement) and macro uncertainty (uncertainty about macro outcomes) from changes in macro volatility.

Following the efficiency logic that argues process quality management provides an important basis for firms’ internal controls over their innovation activities, this study which is set within emerging markets extends the literature by shedding light upon an interesting phenomenon: employing process quality management reduces purchasing risk for potential customers by conveying valuable information regarding the firms who employ it (a symbolic logic argument).

We study the intertemporal properties of accounting conservatism with a focus on managerial incentives. In our main model, conservatism results in smaller expected payouts to the manager (agent) in early periods and larger expected payouts in later periods. Conservatism shifts (ambiguous) evidence that might be used to recognize good performance in early periods to later periods. In later periods, good performance is less informative, since good news might mean good current period performance and might also mean good prior period performance whose recognition was delayed.

This paper studies how hedge fund activism impacts corporate innovation. Firms targeted by activists improve their innovation efficiency over the five-year period following hedge fund intervention. Despite a tightening in research and development (R&D) expenditures, target firms increase innovation output, as measured by both patent counts and citations, with stronger effects among firms with more diversified innovation portfolios. Reallocation of innovative resources, redeployment of human capital, and change to board-level expertise all contribute to improve target firms' innovation.

We use a very accurate panel of all individual spending, income, balances, and credit limits from a financial aggregation app and document significant payday responses of spending to the arrival of both regular and irregular income. These payday responses are clean, robust, and homogeneous for all income and spending categories throughout the income distribution. Spending responses to income are typically explained by households' capital structures: households that hold little or no liquid wealth have to consume hand-to-mouth.

Although the rates of economic inequality in the United States are at their highest since the onset of The Great Depression, many Americans do not seem as concerned as may be expected. This apparent lack of concern has been attributed to people's deeply-entrenched belief in economic mobility -- the belief that through hard work, determination, and skill people are able to rise up the economic ladder. Little is known, however, about why Americans so strongly believe in economic mobility.

Firms often finance their inventory through debt and subsequently sell it to generate profits and service the debt. Pricing of products is consequently driven by both inventory and debt servicing considerations. In the present paper, we analyze how debt distorts dynamic pricing decisions and reduces generated sales revenues. We show that debt induces sellers to always price higher than the revenue-maximizing price.

Selecting more productive employees among a pool of job applicants can be a cost-effective means of improving organizational performance and may be particularly important in the public sector. We study the relationship among applicant characteristics, hiring outcomes, and job performance for teachers in the Washington DC Public Schools. Applicants' academic background (e.g., undergraduate GPA) is essentially uncorrelated with hiring.

This article provides evidence about the impact that public and private research had on premature mortality and hospitalization due to cancer in the United States during the period 1999-2013. We estimate difference-in-differences models based on longitudinal, cancer-site-level data to determine whether the cancer sites about which more research-supported articles were published had larger subsequent reductions in premature mortality and hospitalization during the period 1999 to 2013, controlling for the change in the number of people diagnosed.

This study provides econometric evidence about the impact that new chemical entity (NCE) launches had on premature mortality from 17 diseases in 9 Middle Eastern and African countries during the period 2007–2015.

The greater the relative number of NCEs for a disease launched in a country, the greater the subsequent relative decline in premature mortality from that disease, controlling for the average rate of mortality decline in each country and from each disease.

People can be surprisingly insensitive to quantities in valuation judgments—a phenomenon called scope insensitivity, which is generally attributed to the operation of affective processes in judgment. Building on research showing that affect is inherently a decision-making system of the present, we propose that scope insensitivity is more likely to be observed in decisions that are psychologically proximate to the immediate self.

Two modern economic trends are the increase in firm size and advances in information technology. We explore the hypothesis that big data disproportionately benefits big firms. Because they have more economic activity and a longer firm history, large firms have produced more data. As processor speed rises, abundant data attracts more financial analysis. Data analysis improves investors’ forecasts and reduces equity uncertainty, reducing the firm’s cost of capital. When investors can process more data, large firm investment costs fall by more, enabling large firms to grow larger.

Governments are present-biased toward spending. Fiscal rules are deficit limits that trade off commitment to not overspend and flexibility to react to shocks. We compare coordinated rules, chosen jointly by a group of countries, to uncoordinated rules. If governments' present bias is small, coordinated rules are tighter than uncoordinated rules: individual countries do not internalize the redistributive effect of interest rates. However, if the bias is large, coordinated rules are slacker: countries do not internalize the disciplining effect of interest rates.

We study the multi-armed bandit problem with arms which are Markov chains with rewards. In the finite-horizon setting, the celebrated Gittins indices do not apply, and the exact solution is intractable. We provide approximation algorithms for the general model of Markov decision processes with nonunit transition times. When preemption is allowed, we provide a (1/2 − ε)-approximation, along with an example showing this is tight. When preemption isn’t allowed, we provide a 1/12-approximation, which improves to a 4/27-approximation when transition times are unity.

This study employs a two-way fixed effects research design to measure the mortality impact and cost-effectiveness of cancer drugs: It analyzes the correlation across 36 countries between the relative mortality from 19 types of cancer in 2015 and the relative number of drugs previously launched in that country to treat that type of cancer, controlling for relative incidence.

We develop a theory of banking that explains why banks started out as commodities warehouses. We show that warehouses become banks because their superior storage technology allows them to enforce the repayment of loans most effectively. Further, interbank markets emerge endogenously to support this enforcement mechanism. Even though warehouses store deposits of real goods, they make loans by writing new "fake" warehouse receipts, rather than by taking deposits out of storage.

Many service systems have servers with different capabilities and customers with varying needs. One common way this occurs is when servers are hierarchical in their skills or in the level of service they can provide. Much of the literature studying such systems relies on an understanding of the relative costs and benefits associated with serving different customer types by the different levels of service. In this work, we focus on estimating these costs and benefits in a complex healthcare setting where the major differentiation among server types is the intensity of service provided.

Using the staggered adoption of universal demand (UD) laws in the United States, we study the effect of shareholder litigation risk on corporate disclosure. We find that disclosure significantly increases after UD laws make it more difficult to file derivative lawsuits. Specifically, firms issue more earnings forecasts and voluntary 8-K filings, and increase the length of management discussion and analysis (MD&A) in their 10-K filings. We further assess the direct and indirect channels through which UD laws affect firms' disclosure policies.

Inquiry into CSR as a human capital management tool has suggested that firms benefit from such activities because employees value the meaningfulness of these activities, which influences motivation and retention. We propose an alternate avenue through which firms can benefit from an important type of socially responsible activity — pro bono services — that does not require that employees derive utility from the meaningfulness of the activity.

If you try to ensure long-term human well-being within the limits of the natural world, then you design for sustainability. This Review organizes research describing how cognitive biases can hinder and help engineering design for sustainability. For example, designers might overlook climate change implications because of nearsighted thinking, a bias which can be overcome by vividly imagining the future. For researchers, this Review illuminates needs at the convergence of decision science and engineering design.

We find that voters who associate themselves with the "winning team" in election, i.e., Leave voters in the 2016 UK Brexit vote and Trump voters in 2016 US presidential election, substantially increase their expectations for the stock market, but change their expectations of their household economic wellbeing only modestly. Respondents who associate themselves with the "losing team" are more varied in their responses, but the overall impact of the election outcome on this group is more muted.

Expectancies play an important and understudied role in influencing a negotiator's decision to be deceptive. Studies 1a–1e investigated the sources of negotiators' expectancies, finding evidence of projection and pessimism; negotiators consistently overestimated the prevalence of people who share their views on deception and assumed a sizable share of others embrace deceptive tactics. This phenomenon generalized beyond American samples to Chinese students (Study 1d) and Turkish adults (Study 1e).

Objective:

We sought to build on the template-matching methodology by incorporating longitudinal comorbidities and acute physiology to audit hospital quality.

Study Setting:

Patients admitted for sepsis and pneumonia, congestive heart failure, hip fracture, and cancer between January 2010 and November 2011 at 18 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals.

Study Design:

I study a single-agent sequential search problem as in Weitzman. Contrary to Weitzman, conditional on stopping, the agent may take any uninspected box without first inspecting its contents. This introduces a new trade-off. By taking a box without inspection, the agent saves on its inspection costs. However, by inspecting it, he may discover that its contents are lower than he anticipated. I identify sufficient conditions on the parameters of the environment under which I characterize the optimal policy.

Unplanned transfers of patients from general medical-surgical wards to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) may occur due to unexpected patient deterioration. Such patients tend to have higher mortality rates and longer lengths of stay than direct admits to the ICU. A new predictive model, the EDIP2, was developed with the intent to identify patients at risk for deterioration, which in some cases could trigger a proactive transfer to the ICU. While it is conceivable that proactive transfers could improve individual patient outcomes, they could also lead to ICU congestion.

This paper documents how life cycle wage growth varies across countries. We harmonize repeated cross-sectional surveys from a set of countries of all income levels and then measure how wages rise with potential experience. Our main finding is that experience-wage profiles are on average twice as steep in rich countries as in poor countries. In addition, more educated workers have steeper profiles than the less educated; this accounts for around one-third of cross-country differences in aggregate profiles.

Engineering design decisions can produce more sustainable civil infrastructure systems, but cognitive barriers to innovative thinking often inhibit such outcomes. Existing research shows how descriptive norms that provide decision-makers with information about how others decide in a given context, can encourage more sustainable choices among users. Research described in this article shows that descriptive norms can encourage more sustainable choices among designers of civil infrastructure.

We examine the effects of financial reporting regulation on firms' banking. Exploiting discontinuous public disclosure and auditing requirements assigned to otherwise similar small and medium-sized private firms, we document that financial reporting regulation reduces firms' reliance on concentrated and local bank relationships and increases banks' reliance on firms' financial reporting, consistent with a shift in firms' banking from relationship toward transactional approaches.

Objective:

To understand the impact of adding a medical step-down unit (SDU) on patient outcomes and throughput in a medical intensive care unit (ICU).

Design:

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting:

Two academic tertiary care hospitals within the same health-care system.

Patients:

Adults admitted to the medical ICU at either the control or intervention hospital from October 2013 to March 2014 (preintervention) and October 2014 to March 2015 (postintervention).

Recent evidence suggests that investors are inattentive to their portfolios and hire expensive portfolio managers. This paper develops a life-cycle portfolio-choice model in which the investor experiences loss-averse utility over news and can ignore his portfolio. In such a model, the investor prefers to ignore and not rebalance his portfolio most of the time because he dislikes bad news more than he likes good news such that expected news cause a first-order decrease in utility.

When companies plan to build multi-category brands by adding new products to their product lines, two questions loom large: (1) whether and (2) when brand extensions perceived as distant (comparatively dissimilar) from the company’s existing core line of products should be introduced. Since many real-world firms have introduced distant brand extensions, this paper focuses on the second question: when the company should introduce a distant extension within a series of other closer extensions — a decision for which there is little research-based guidance for managers.