Leadership & Organizational Behavior

This paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices. We construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood, identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production. Using this model we find three main results. First, we find formulas for equilibrium forward, futures, discount bond, commodity bond and commodity option prices.

The article presents several lender supply and borrower demand conditions for a leverage structure of interest rates. The paper presents a model of the credit transaction between individuals embedded in a competitive credit market. In this model, the individual has to decide on the optimal allocation of his initial investible capital K, among a risk asset with random rate of return R-1 available to all investors, a riskless asset with return s-1 and lending to or borrowing from another individual. Short sales of the risk asset are not permitted.

This paper demonstrates that it will be impossible, by observing an agent's demand behavior, to either refute or confirm the general taste change hypothesis without substantially restricting the class of eligible preferences.

This paper examines the hypothesis that the expected rate of return to speculation in the forward foreign exchange market is zero; that is, the logarithm of the forward exchange rate is the market's conditional expectation of the logarithm of the future spot rate. A new computationally tractable econometric methodology for examining restrictions on a k-step-ahead forecasting equation is employed. Using data sampled more finely than the forecast interval, we are able to reject the simple market efficiency hypothesis for exchange rates from the 1970s and the 1920s.

This paper discusses the structural equations, forecasting properties, dynamic characteristics, and economic policy implications of a quarterly econometric model of U.S. livestock and feedgrain markets. Quarterly, semi-annual, and annual endogenous variables are incorporated by allowing individual structural equations to be estimated and to enter into the solution of the model with different periodicities. Commodity prices are determined by market equilibrium conditions rather than by autoregressive and other time-series techniques.

This paper studies economic policy toward feed grain and livestock markets by applying optimal control theory to a quarterly microeconometric model.

Reprinted in Fred Lane, (ed.), <em>Current Issues in Public Administration</em> (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1978), pp. 288- 301.

In recent years productivity bargaining has been heralded as a promising means of increasing productivity in government, particularly at state and local levels. However, analysis of the literature and practice of productivity bargaining indicates that certain inherent conceptual and implementational problems have not been adequately recognized by academics and practitioners. The central problem concerns the failure to recognize that productivity gains may be counterproductive if accompanied by excessive unit cost increases.

Can collective bargaining and the merit system co-exist in public employment? Many writers in the field think that concepts of merit must give way to seniority in government service, as it has in the private sector. The authors believe that view is incorrect. Indeed, by pressing for equity, and an end to patronage, unions may even be contributing to the strengthening of the merit system.