Columbia Business School Research

We demonstrate that counterfactuals prime a mental simulation mind-set in which relevant but potentially converse alternatives are considered and that this mind-set activation has behavioral consequences. This mind-set is closely related to the simulation heuristic (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982). Participants primed with a counterfactual were more likely to solve the Duncker candle problem (Experiment 1), suggesting that they noticed an alternative function for one of the objects, an awareness that is critical to solving the problem.

This article presents an empirical model of housing supply derived from urban growth theory. This approach describes new housing construction as a function of changes in house prices and costs rather than as a function of the levels of those variables, which previous studies have used. Empirical tests support this specification over the leading alternative models. Our estimates show that a 10% rise in real prices leads to an 0.8% increase in the housing stock, which is accomplished by a temporary 60% increase in the annual number of starts, spread over four quarters.

A study examines the sale of a product across channels. Using data from 35 movies, exponential sales curves are estimated for both theater attendance and video rentals. How knowledge of the sales parameters in the first channel helps predict sales in the subsequent channel is demonstrated.

This paper proposes and anlyzes discrete-time approximations to a class of diffusions, with an emphasis on preserving certain important features of the continuous-time processes in the approximations. We start with multivariate diffusions having three features in particular: they are martingales, each of their components evolves within the unit interval, and the components are almost surely ordered.

We investigate a simple adaptive approach to optimizing seat protection levels in airline revenue management systems. The approach uses only historical observations of the relative frequencies of certain seat-filling events to guide direct adjustments of the seat protection levels in accordance with the optimality conditions of Brumelle and McGill (1993). Stochastic approximation theory is used to prove the convergence of this adaptive algorithm to the optimal protection levels.

In this article, the authors focus on impacts of tax rates and, in particular, tax progressivity on the decision to become an 'entrepreneur.' While a proportional tax with a full loss offset will not affect the entry decision for a risk-neutral individual, a progressive schedule with imperfect loss offsets can discourage entry. The authors find substantial evidence for this effect on entrepreneurship using variation in tax schedules faced by households in the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID) over the period from 1979 to 1992.

It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and volatility feedback. Our empirical application uses the market portfolio and portfolios with different leverage constructed from Nikkei 225 stocks. We reject the pure leverage model of Christie (1982) and find support for a volatility feedback story.

Previous theories of financial market rationing focussed on a single market, either the credit or the equity market. An interesting question is whether credit and equity rationing are mutually compatible, and how they interact. We consider a model with two-dimensional asymmetric information, where entrepreneurs have private information about both the expected returns and the risk of their projects. We show that credit and equity rationing may occur individually or simultaneously.

We propose a cross-sectional time-series model to assess the impact of market liberalizations in emerging equity markets on the cost of capital, volatility, beta, and correlation with world market returns. Liberalizations are defined by regulatory changes, the introduction of depositary receipts and country funds, and structural breaks in equity capital flows to the emerging markets. We control for other economic events that might confound the impact of foreign speculators on local equity markets.

Using 3 experiments, the authors explored the role of perspective-taking in debiasing social thought. In the 1st 2 experiments, perspective-taking was contrasted with stereotype suppression as a possible strategy for achieving stereotype control. In Experiment 1, perspective-taking decreased stereotypic biases on both a conscious and a nonconscious task.

In a dynamic model of moral hazard, competition can undermine prudent bank behavior. While capital-requirement regulation can induce prudent behavior, the policy yields Pareto-inefficient outcomes. Capital requirements reduce gambling incentives by putting bank equity at risk. However, they also have a perverse effect of harming banks' franchise values, thus encouraging gambling. Pareto-efficient outcomes can be achieved by adding deposit-rate controls as a regulatory instrument, since they facilitate prudent investment by increasing franchise values.

In four experiments we examine the ability of simple concurrent disclosures to correct invalid inferences about brand quality based on advertising claims. We ensure that the disclosure is always encoded, yet we find that it is utilized to correct invalid inferences only under high-capacity conditions. Across the experiments, cognitive capacity is operationalized as opportunity to process (time), ability (explicitness of disclosure), and motivation (accuracy incentive).

The authors propose a new methodology called the "coupled-hazard approach" to study the global diffusion of technological innovations. Beyond its ability to describe discontinuous diffusion patterns, the method explicitly recognizes the conceptual difference between the timing of a country's introduction of the new technology (the so-called implementation stage; Rogers 1983) and the timing of the innovation's full adoption in the country (the confirmation stage).

The authors study global adoption processes where the units of observation are countries, which sequentially adopt a particular technology. The authors’ goal is to provide a better understanding of how exogenous and endogenous country characteristics affect this diffusion process. They develop a general model of global adoption processes, which allows researchers to test extant theories of cross-country adoption, and illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184 countries.

This paper empirically compares a variety of firm-value-based models of contingent claims. We formulate a general model which nests versions of the models introduced by Merton, 1974; Leland, 1994 and Anderson and Sundaresan, 1996, and Mella-Barral and Perraudin (1997). We estimate these using aggregate time series data for the US corporate bond market, monthly, from August 1970 through December 1996. We find that models fit reasonably well, indicating that variations of leverage and asset volatility account for much of the time-series variations of observed corporate yields.

In this paper, we consider American option contracts when the underlying asset has stochastic dividends and stochastic volatility. We provide a full discussion of the theoretical foundations of American option valuation and exercise boundaries. We show how they depend on the various sources of uncertainty which drive dividend rates and volatility, and derive equilibrium asset prices, derivative prices and optimal exercise boundaries in a general equilibrium model.

An important recent development in the pricing of interest rate derivatives is the emergence of models that incorporate lognormal volatilities for forward Libor or forward swap rates while keeping interest rates stable. These market models have three attractive features: they preclude arbitrage among bonds, they keep rates positive, and, most distinctively, they price caps or swaptions according to Black's formula, thus allowing automatic calibration to market data. But these features of continuous-time formulations are easily lost when the models are discretized for simulation.

This paper reviews briefly the arguments for capital market liberalization, and identifies their theoretical and empirical weaknesses. This provides the foundations for the argument for intervention in short-term capital flows. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the various ways in which such interventions may be implemented.

When consumers' willingness-to-pay increases by a uniform amount, the change in the resulting monopoly price is generally indeterminate. Our analysis identifies sufficient conditions on the underlying demand curve which predict both the sign and the magnitude of the resulting price change.

Three experiments tested whether counterfactual events can serve as primes. The evidence supports the hypothesis that counterfactuals prime a mental simulation mind-set that leads people to consider alternatives. Exposure to counterfactual scenarios affected person perception judgments in a later, unrelated task and this effect was distinct from semantic construct priming. Moreover, these effects were dependent on the availability of salient possible outcomes in the person perception task.

The valuation of debt and equity, reorganization boundaries, and firm's optimal dividend policies are studied in a framework where we model strategic interactions between debt holders and equity holders in a game-theoretic setting which can accommodate varying bargaining powers to the two claimants. Two formulations of reorganization are presented: debt-equity swaps and strategic debt service resulting from negotiated debt service reductions. We study the effects of bond covenants on payout policies and distinguish liquidity-induced defaults from strategic defaults.

The author argues that the Washington consensus is too narrow in its objectives - in its focus on GDP - and in what it sees as the instruments of development, the improvement of resource allocation, through trade liberalization, privatization and stabilization, that development needs to be seen as a transformation of society, a change in mindsets, and that workers and workers' institutions have to be at the center of the development process.

This paper makes two contributions: (1) it presents estimates of a continuous-time stochasticvolatility jump-diffusion process (SVJD) using a simulation-based estimator, and (2) it shows that misspecified models that allow for jumps, but not stochastic volatility, can give very bad estimates of the true process.

Technical analysis, also known as "charting," has been a part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis — the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder.

Behavioral research on negotiation in recent years has been dominated by the decision-making research paradigm, which accords a relatively narrow role to emotions. Decision-making researchers have considered emotions primarily in terms of how an individual’s positive or negative affect impacts, and usually impedes, his or her information processing. Drawing on recent advances in psychology and other fields, we propose an alternative perspective that highlights more social and more functional aspects of emotion in negotiation.

This paper studies implementation in a principal-agent model of adverse selection. We explore ways in which the additional structure of principal-agent models (compared to general implementation models) simplifies the implementation problem. We develop a connection between the single crossing property and monotonicity conditions which are necessary for Nash and Bayesian Nash implementation. We also construct simple implementing mechanisms that rely on the single crossing property and on assumptions about the outcome set frequently made in the principal-agent literature.

In this study, 4 experiments demonstrated that priming effects depend on the context-appropriate meaning of the prime words. Most studies of semantic construct activation have presented prime words in contexts where the meaning of each word was invariant. The authors used words in contexts that supported either literal or figurative meanings, and found that only the context-appropriate meanings had subsequent priming effects on person-perception judgments.

This paper compares the performance of standard-cost with negotiated transfer pricing under asymmetric information. Negotiated transfer pricing generally achieves higher expected contribution margins, as this method tends to be more efficient in aggregating private information into a single transfer price. Standard-cost transfer pricing confers more bargaining power to the supplier and therefore generates better incentives for this division to undertake specific investments. The opposite holds for buyer investments.

We review progress in research attempting to model the influence of culture on judgments of justice. We review research on people’s reactions to resource allocation outcomes (the psychology of distributive justice), as well as on people’s reactions to the processes through which authorities make decisions (the psychology of procedural justice). We describe the progress from early work in which culture was equated with country differences to later work which focused on dimensions of values (e.g.