Faculty AI Research

This paper examines inventory management from an incentive perspective. We show that when a manager has private information about future attainable revenues, the residual income performance measure based on historical cost can achieve optimal (second-best) incentives with regard to managerial effort as well as production and sales decisions. The LIFO (last-in—first-out) inventory flow rule is shown to be preferable to the FIFO (first-in—first-out) rule for the purpose of aligning incentives.

The current consensus on indirect tax reform in developing countries favors a reduction in trade taxes with an increase in VAT to raise revenue. The theoretical results on selective reform that underlie this consensus are, however, derived from partial models that ignore the existence of an informal economy. Once the incomplete coverage of VAT due to an informal economy is acknowledged, we show that, contrary to the current consensus, the standard revenue-neutral selective reform of trade taxes and VAT reduces welfare under plausible conditions.

We propose a measure of capital market integration arising from a conditional regime-switching model. Our measure allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. We find that a number of emerging markets exhibit time-varying integration. Some markets appear more integrated than one might expect based on prior knowledge of investment restrictions. Other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets.

We provide a formal treatment of both static and dynamic portfolio choice using the Disappointment Aversion preferences of Gul (1991. Econometrica 59(3), 667-686), which imply asymmetric aversion to gains versus losses. Our dynamic formulation nests the standard CRRA asset allocation problem as a special case. Using realistic data generating processes, we find reasonable equity portfolio allocations for disappointment averse investors with utility functions exhibiting low curvature.

We present an equilibrium production economy in which default occurs in equilibrium. The borrower chooses optimal default and consumption policies, taking into account that default is costly and the lender gains access to the technology upon default. We derive asset prices and default premia in this economy. The borrower's relative risk aversion in wealth increases with decreases in wealth due to the increased possibility of default at low wealth levels. This produces a time-varying pricing kernel and a countercyclical equity premium.

Dispersion in investor beliefs and short-selling constraints can lead to stock market bubbles. This paper argues that firms, unlike investors, can exploit such bubbles by issuing new shares at inflated prices. This lowers the cost of capital and increases real investment. Perhaps surprisingly, large bubbles are not eliminated in equilibrium nor do large bubbles necessarily imply large distortions. Using the variance of analysts?

We survey the literature analyzing the price formation and trading process, and the consequences of market organization for price discovery and welfare. We offer a synthesis of the theoretical microfoundations and empirical approaches. Within this framework, we confront adverse selection, inventory costs and market power theories to the evidence on transactions costs and price impact. Building on these results, we proceed to an equilibrium analysis of policy issues.

Objective: The objective of this work was the investigation of the extent to which the introduction of new drugs has increased society's ability to produce goods and services by increasing the number of hours worked per member of the working-age population. Methods: Econometric models of ability-to-work measures from data on approximately 200,000 individuals with 47 major chronic conditions observed throughout a 15-year period (1982-1996) were estimated.

In this paper we examine the factors that determine how firms manage large, firm-specific risks, in this case, product liability. The risk of being sued for defective products or damage from defective products poses a small probability of a great loss to the firm. Product liability exposure arises from the firm's choice of products and markets; choices that are fundamental to the firm's business strategy and that are costly to alter. Firms are unlikely to be naturally hedged by cash flows with respect to product liability risk.

The recent media and political attention on service outsourcing from developed to developing countries gives the impression that outsourcing is exploding. As a result, workers in industrial countries are anxious about job losses. This paper aims to establish what are the hypes and what are the facts. The results show that although service outsourcing has been steadily increasing it is still very low, and that in the United States and many other industrial countries "insourcing" of services is greater than outsourcing.

The present article offers a conceptual model for how the cognitive processes associated with perspective-taking facilitate social coordination and foster social bonds. We suggest that the benefits of perspective-taking accrue through an increased self-other overlap in cognitive representations and discuss the implications of this perspective-taking induced self-other overlap for stereotyping and prejudice.

Participants recalled instances when they felt vicariously ashamed or guilty for another's wrongdoing and rated their appraisals of the event and resulting motivations. The study tested aspects of social association that uniquely predict vicarious shame and guilt. Results suggest that the experience of vicarious shame and vicarious guilt are distinguishable. Vicarious guilt was predicted by one's perceived interdependence with the wrongdoer (e.g., high interpersonal interaction), an appraisal of control over the event, and a motivation to repair the other person's wrongdoing.

This paper investigates the effect of decision-makers'culture on their implicit choice of how to make decisions. In a content analysis of major decisions described in American and Chinese twentieth-century novels, we test a series of hypotheses based on prior theoretical and empirical investigations of cross-cultural variation in human motivation and decision processes.

We present a theory of cultural evolution based upon a renormalization group scheme. We consider rational but cognitively limited agents who optimize their decision-making process by iteratively updating and refining the mental representation of their natural and social environment. These representations are built around the most important degrees of freedom of their world. Cultural coherence among agents is defined as the overlap of mental representations and is characterized using an adequate order parameter.

We consider a model of a service system that delivers two nonsubstitutable services to a market of heterogenous users. The first service is delivered subject to a "guaranteed" (G) processing rate, and the second is a "best-effort" (BE) type service in which residual capacity not allocated to the guaranteed class is shared among BE users. Users, in turn, are sensitive to both price and congestion-related effects. The service provider's objective is to optimally design the system so as to extract maximum revenues.

We demonstrate the effect of consumers' lay theories of self-control on goal-directed behavior as evidenced by New Year's and other resolutions. Across three studies, we find that individuals who believe that self-control is a malleable but inherently limited (vs. unlimited) resource tend to set fewer resolutions. Using respondents' own idiographic resolutions, this result is shown to hold in general as well as in consumption-specific domains regardless of whether lay theories are measured or manipulated.

The author discusses his work with the Conference Board's Council on Corporate Brand Management to develop a brand scorecard for monitoring the health of a brand.

An unanswered question in the debate on public sector inefficiency is whether reforms other than government divestiture can effectively substitute for privatization. Using a 1981–1995 panel dataset of all public and private manufacturing establishments in Indonesia, we analyze whether public sector inefficiency is primarily due to agency-type problems or to the environment in which public sector enterprises operate, as measured by the soft budget constraint and the degree of internal and external competition.

Wefind that domestic currency, currency corrected for foreign holdings, has a substantial share in forecast error variance decomposition of US inflation. We also find that domestic currency has higher share of the forecast error variance decomposition of US real output than any other narrow monetary aggregate we consider.

Most models of how perceivers infer the widespread attitudes and qualities of social groups revolve around either the self (social projection, false consensus) or stereotypes (stereotyping). I suggest people rely on both of these inferential strategies, with perceived general similarity moderating their use, leading to increased levels of projection and decreased levels of stereotyping.

Interest in the role of entrepreneurial entry in innovation raises the question of the extent to which tax policy encourages or discourages entry. We find that, while the level of the marginal tax rate has a negative effect in entrepreneurial entry, the progressivity of the tax also discourages entrepreneurship, and significantly so for some groups of households. These effects are principally traceable to the upside' or success' convexity of the household tax schedule.

This paper develops algorithms for the pricing of discretely sampled barrier, lookback and hindsight options and discretely exercisable American options. Under the Black-Scholes framework, the pricing of these options can be reduced to evaluation of a series of convolutions of the Gaussian distribution and a known function. We compute these convolutions efficiently using the double-exponential integration formula and the fast Gauss transform.

We consider a call center model with m input flows and r pools of agents; the m-vector [lamda] of instantaneous arrival rates is allowed to be time dependent and to vary stochastically. Seeking to optimize the trade-off between personnel costs and abandonment penalties, we develop and illustrate a practical method for sizing the r agent pools. Using stochastic fluid models, this method reduces the staffing problem to a multidimensional newsvendor problem, which can be solved numerically by a combination of linear programming and Monte Carlo simulation.

This article considers the problem of testing curvature (e.g., linearity, concavity, convexity) in a multivariate nonparametric regression model. A measure of curvature, called the simplex statistic, that does not require bandwidth choice and is easy to compute, is introduced. A global test of curvature based on the simplex statistic is also introduced. Localized versions of the test, which require smoothing parameters, are shown to be consistent against more general alternatives than the global test.

A fictional example illustrates how interdependencies among products in the production process, and the costs associated with those interdependencies, challenge the ability of cost accounting systems to generate decision-useful product cost information. The cost interdependency in the current example is a production-line change-over cost that is incurred to retool a machine whenever the production process changes from one product to another.

This article works out a general formulation of residual income valuation. It shows how to construct valuaton functions using accounting book value, earnings, and earnings forecasts. The approach developed applies to linear as well as nonlinear valuation functions.

Using both a linear regression method and a probability-based method, we find that on average analysts place larger than efficient weights on (i.e., they over-weight) their private information when they forecast corporate earnings. We also find that analysts over-weight more when issuing forecasts more favorable than the consensus, and over-weight less, and may even under-weight, private information when issuing forecasts less favorable than the consensus.

In this paper, we examine people's appraisals of unusual objects and their intuitions about whether others will like those objects. Prior work suggests uniqueness motives (e.g., Need for Uniqueness) affect appraisals, but the effect of these motives on projection of appraisals to others is unclear. Contrary to some prior work, we argue that uniqueness motives do not govern projection of appraisals but rather that individual differences in perceived similarity to a target group do.

In this paper, we examine how people evaluate unusual objects and how they intuit whether others will like those objects. We focus on two predictions. First, we believe that an object's uniqueness is susceptible to framing by drawing attention toward or away from the object's unusualness. We expect such "uniqueness framing" interacts with needs for uniqueness (NFU): high NFU perceivers will like the same objects (e.g., neckties, names) more when asked to dwell on the object's uniqueness vs. typicality while low NFU perceivers will like them less.

How does one tell when rapid growth in house prices is caused by fundamental factors of supply and demand and when it is an unsustainable bubble? In this paper, we explain how to assess the state of house prices - both whether there is a bubble and what underlying factors support housing demand - in a way that is grounded in economic theory. In doing so, we correct four common fallacies about the costliness of the housing market.