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Faculty AI Research

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1999
Journal
Journal of Financial Economics

Understanding the Determinants of Managerial Ownership and the Link Between Ownership and Performance

Author
Himmelberg, Charles, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Darius Palia

Both managerial ownership and performance are endogenously determined by exogenous (and only partly observed) changes in the firm's contracting environment. We extend the cross-sectional results of Demsetz and Lehn (1985), (Journal of Political Economy, 93, 1155?1177) and use panel data to show that managerial ownership is explained by key variables in the contracting environment in ways consistent with the predictions of principal-agent models. A large fraction of the cross-sectional variation in managerial ownership is explained by unobserved firm heterogeneity.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1999
Journal
Academy of Management Review

Views from inside and outside: Integrating emic and etic insights about culture and justice judgment

Author
Morris, Michael, K. Leung, Daniel Ames, and Brian Lickel

We analyze forms of synergy between emic and etic approaches to research on culture and cognition. Drawing on the justice judgment literature, we describe dynamics through which the two approaches stimulate each other's progress. Moreover, we delineate ways in which integrative emic/etic frameworks overcome limitations of narrower frameworks in modeling culture and cognition. Finally, we identify advantages of integrative frameworks in guiding responses to the diverse justice sensitivities in international organizations.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Electronic Packaging

A Global Multi-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis of Electronic Systems Subjected to Time-Dependent Excitations

Author
Jensen, Hector
This technical note presents a global sensitivity analysis method for the dynamic response of electronic systems considering several design parameters at the same time. The method is an extension of a previous method presented by the authors for the one-dimensional case (only one design variable at a time was considered subjected to uncertainty). The method is expected to be useful in the design, analysis and qualification of electronic components.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control

A large deviations perspective on the efficiency of multilevel splitting

Author
Glasserman, Paul, Philip Heidelberger, Perwez Shahabuddin, and Tim Zajic
We analyze the performance of a multilevel splitting method for rare event simulation related to one recently proposed in the telecommunications literature. This method splits promising paths into subpaths at intermediate levels to increase the number of observations of a rare event. In our previous paper (1997) we gave sufficient conditions, in specific classes of models, for this method to be asymptotically optimal; here we focus on necessary conditions in a general setting.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Review of Accounting Studies

A Synthesis of Equity Valuation Techniques and the Terminal Value Calculation for the Dividend Discount Model

Author
Penman, Stephen

This paper lays out alternative equity valuation models that involve forecasting for finite periods and shows how they are related to each other. It contrasts dividend discounting models, discounted cash flow models, and "residual income" models based on accrual accounting. It shows that some models that are apparently different yield the same valuation. It gives the general form of the terminal value calculation in these models and shows how this calculation serves to correct errors in the model.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

Customer Reactions to Variety: Too Much of A Good Thing?

Author
Farley, John U and Donald Lehmann
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Management Science

Echelon reorder points, installation reorder points, and the value of centralized demand information

Author
Chen, Fangruo
We consider a serial inventory system with N stages. The material flows from an outside supplier to stage N, then to stage N-1, etc., and finally to stage 1 where random customer demand arises. Each stage replenishes a stage-specific inventory position according to a stage-specific reorder point/order quantity policy. Two variations of this policy are considered. One is based on echelon stock, and the other installation stock. The former requires centralized demand information, while the latter does not.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

From performance to decision processes in 33 years: A history of <em>Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes</em> under James C. Naylor

Author
Weber, Elke
For the past 33 years, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes has thrived under a single editor. That editor, James C. Naylor, is retiring from his long stewardship. This article chronicles the course of the journal under Jim's direction and marks some of the accomplishments and changes over the past three decades that go to his credit.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Management Science

Modeling and worker motivation in JIT production systems

Author
Schultz, Kenneth, David Juran, John Boudreau, John McClain, and L. Thomas

This paper concerns the modeling of low inventory lines. Currently, most models assume that processing times are independent. We consider the differences in behavior of workers in low- and high-inventory production lines. Using a laboratory experiment we show that workers speed up whent hey are the cause of idle time on the line. This means that processing time distributions are not independent of the size of the buffer, of the processing speed of co-workers, or of the amount of inventory in the system.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Advances in Applied Probability

Optimal Dynamic Scheduling of a General Class of Parallel-Processing Queueing Systems

Author
Gans, Noah and Garrett van Ryzin

In this paper we develop policies for scheduling dynamically arriving jobs to a broad class of parallel-processing queueing systems. We show that in heavy traffic the policies asymptotically minimize a measure of the expected system backlog, which we call system work. Our results yield succinct, closed-form expressions for optimal system work in heavy traffic.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Management Science

A note on approximating peak congestion in <em>M<sub>t</sub>/G/</em>&#8734; queues with sinusoidal arrivals

Author
Green, Linda and Peter Kolesar

We study the Mt/G/∞ queue where customers arrive according to a sinusoidal function λt = λ + A sin(2 π t/T) and the service rate is μ. We show that the expected number of customers in the system during peak congestion can be closely approximated by (λ + A)/ μ for service distributions with coefficient of variation between 0 and 1.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Marketing Research

Designing the Next Study for Maximum Impact

Author
Farley, John, Donald Lehmann, and Lane Mann

Generalized knowledge comes from cumulating results across studies, a process known as meta-analysis. Efficiently increasing generalized knowledge in a defined area-estimates of price or advertising, for example-is one important goal for research. Because (1) most meta-analyses are based on highly inefficient and unbalanced natural experiments or designs and (2) additional studies are costly, carefully selecting the next study is important.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Statistica Neerlandica

Modeling Large Data Sets in Marketing

Author
Balasubramanian, Sridhar, Wagner Kamakura, and Michel Wedel
In the last two decades, marketing databases have grown significantly in terms of size and richness of available information. The analysis of these databases raises several information-related and statistical issues. We aim at providing an overview of a selection of issues related to the analysis of large data sets. We focus on the two important areas: single source databases and customer transaction databases. We discuss models that have been used to describe customer behavior in these fields.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
American Sociological Review

And Then There Were More? The Effect of Organizational Sex Composition on the Hiring and Promotion of Managers

Author
Cohen, Lisa and Joseph Broschak
We study how organizational sex composition influences the intraorganizational mobility of male and female managers. We test hypotheses linking organizational sex composition to hiring and promotion using longitudinal data on all managers in the California savings and loan industry. We find that the impact of sex composition depends on hierarchical level: Not only does it matter what relative proportions of men and women are working in organizations, but it also matters at what levels in the managerial hierarchies they are working.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
International Finance

Investment Incentives Blunted by Changes in Prices of Capital Goods?: International Evidence

Author
Hassett, Kevin and R. Glenn Hubbard

Recent research on business investment decisions suggests that real investment in plant and equipment is quite sensitive to changes in the user cost of capital, pointing to the possibility that long-run changes in tax policy may have a significant impact on an economy's capital stock. Indeed, many countries have at times adopted investment tax incentives to stimulate investment. The prevalence of investment incentives suggests that local policy-makers believe these are effective in increasing investment at a reasonable cost in terms of lost revenue.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

MarketNet: Market-Based Protection of Information Systems

Author
Yemini, Y., A. Dailianas, D. Florissi, and Gur Huberman

This paper describes novel market-based technologies for systematic, quantifiable and predictable protection of information systems against attacks. MarketNet establishes a financial market to regulate and protect access resource access and to account for their use. A domain offers access to its resources to cIients who can pay with its currency. It controls its exposure to attacks by pricing critical resources high and by limiting the currency available to potential attackers.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Academy of Management Review

Multimarket Maneuvering in Uncertain Spheres of Influence: Resource Diversion Strategies

Author
Chen, Ming-Jer and Ian MacMillan
Firms competing in multiple markets find equilibrium through spheres of influence and mutual forbearance, but imperfect competitive information may give one firm an incentive to influence rivals' behavior and uncover information. We suggest that a firm's resource allocations can divert competitors' resource allocations, enhancing the firm's own sphere of influence without precipitating a destructive all-out war.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

The Dangers of Exchange Rate Pegging in Emerging-Market Countries

Author
Mishkin, Frederic
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

Distinguishing sources of cooperation in the one-round Prisoner's Dilemma: Evidence for cooperative decisions based on the illusion of control

Author
Morris, Michael, D. Sim, and V. Girotto

The fact that people frequently cooperate in the single-trial Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game indicates that their decision making in conflicts is not always guided by game-theoretic analyses of expected outcomes. Whereas most theorists have accounted for cooperation in terms of an ethically rooted concern for matching another's “good faith” cooperation (Hofstadter, 1985), others have argued that cooperation reflects several distinct social norms or heuristics (Elster, 1989).

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

Divide and Prosper: Consumers’ Reactions to Partitioned Prices

Author
Morwitz, Vicki, Eric Greenleaf, and Eric Johnson
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Production and Operations Management

Insights on service system design from a normal approximation to Erlang's delay formula

Author
Kolesar, Peter and Linda Green

We show how a simple normal approximation to Erlang's delay formula can be used to analyze capacity and staffing problems in service systems that can be modeled as M/M/s queues.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Management Science

Optimal production policies for multi-stage systems with setup costs and uncertain capacities

Author
Hwang, Juhwen and Medini Singh

The increased complexity of modern manufacturing has led to uncertainties in production processes. Factors such as unplanned machine maintenance, tool unavailability, and complex process adjustments make it difficult to maintain a predictable level of output. To be effective, an appropriate production model must incorporate these uncertainties into the representation of the production process. This paper considers a one-time production of an application-specific product which must follow a fixed routing through the manufacturing system.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Consumer Research

Representativeness, Relevance, and the Use of Feelings in Decision Making

Author
Pham, Michel Tuan

It has been suggested that evaluations may be based on a "How-do-I-feel-about-it?" heuristic, which involves holding a representation of the target in mind and inspect feelings that this representation may elicit. Previous studies have shown that reliance on such feelings depends on whether they are believed to be representative of the target. This paper argues that it also depends on whether feelings toward the target are regarded as relevant.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Marketing Letters

An Investigation of Factors Influencing Causal Attributions in Managerial Decision Making

Author
Narayanan, Sunder and Donald Lehmann

This study investigates factors influencing causal attributions in managerial decision making. Three categories of factors are identified: (i) prior beliefs (ii) background frequencies, and (iii) covariation cues. The impact of factors in each of the above categories on causal attribution are studied in a marketing decision making context. Subjects demonstrated a bias toward assigning causality to variables that occurred infrequently or were controllable. Also, subjects were particularly influenced by the joint-occurrences of cause and effect variables.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Issues in Accounting Education

Capital Budgeting: Some Exceptions to the Net Present Value Rule

Author
Arya, A., J. Fellingham, and Jonathan Glover
Textbooks tend to emphasize the net present value (NPV) rule, often arguing that it is theoretically superior to other methods. Yet other methods, many of which do not involve discounting, are also used in practice. Hence, one of two conclusions can be drawn: (1) firms are making suboptimal decisions or (2) the assumptions underlying the NPV rule are not always met in practice. The purpose of this paper is to present simple numerical examples wherein applying the NPV rule leads to erroneous decisions. The examples highlight the assumptions underlying the NPV rule.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Marketing Letters

From Decision Support to Decision Automation: A 20/20 Vision

Author
Bucklin, Randolph, Donald Lehmann, and John Little

The authors discuss the long-run future of decision support systems in marketing. They argue that a growing proportion of marketing decisions can not only be supported but may also be automated. From a standpoint of both efficiency (e.g., management productivity) and effectiveness (e.g., resource allocation decisions), such automation is highly desirable. The authors describe how model-based automated decision-making is likely to penetrate various marketing decision-making environments and how such models can incorporate competitive dynamics.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

From Decision Support to Decision Automation: A 2020 Vision

Author
Bucklin, Randolph W., Donald Lehmann, and John D.C. Little
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

From Decision Support to Decision Automation: A 2020 Vision, reprinted in Rohit Deshpandé, ed.

Author
Bucklin, Randolph W, Donald Lehmann, and John D.C. Little
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

What folklore tells us about risk and risk taking: Cross-cultural comparisons of American, German, and Chinese proverbs

Author
Weber, Elke, Christopher Hsee, and J. Sokolowska
Two studies attempted to discriminate between a situational-economic and a cultural explanation for the recently reported finding that Chinese from the People's Republic of China (PRC) are more risk-seeking than Americans. Both studies compared American and Chinese proverbs related to risk and risk-taking. The first study added Germany as a control group for its socioeconomic similarity to the United States but its closer resemblance to the PRC in its social safety-net and cultural collectivism.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
strategy + business

Creating Customer Value through Industrialized Intimacy

Author
Kolesar, Peter, Garrett van Ryzin, and Wayne Cutler

Why has the service factory model failed to live up to its original promise? To answer this question, we start with a basic concept: service is doing the work of your customer. As a result, it requires a high level of contact, communication and coordination with your customers. To deliver truly excellent service, therefore, requires a level of customer intimacy. That is, a service provider needs to know individual customers being served in order to deliver service that, in addition to being efficient, is also personal and effective in fulfilling their total service requirements.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Urban Economics

Intergenerational Transfers, Borrowing Constraints, and Saving Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market

Author
Engelhardt, Gary and Christopher Mayer

We examine the effects of intergenerational transfers on saving behavior by analyzing transfers targeted to first-time home purchases. Transfer recipients have a shorter time to save for a down payment of 9-20%. For each dollar of transfer received, total savings falls by 29-40 cents and the down payment rises by 61-71 cents. Transfer recipients increase the value of the home purchased, but by an amount that is much lower than possible if the transfer were fully leveraged.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Economic Journal

Will Preferential Agreements Undermine the Multilateral Trading System?

Author
Staiger, Robert
In this paper, we ask, will preferential agreement undermine a multilateral trading system that is built on the pillars of reciprocity and non-discrimination? A remaining question is then, how do preferential agreements affect the enforcement provisions of the GATT? To lay the foundation for an answer to the first question, we describe a framework within which the pillar of reciprocity and non-discrimination can themselves be interpreted and understood. From this perspective we then offer support for the view that preferential agreements pose a threat to the multilateral system.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Forecasting

Modelling the Effect of Purchase Quantity on Consumer Choice of Product Assortment

Author
Bucklin, Randolph and S. Siddarth
The authors develop a model to predict consumer selection of product assortment and its relationship to category purchase quantity. Brand and variety choice decisions are modelled with a nested logit. A shopper's vector of choice probabilities - and hence likely assortment selection - directly depends on his or her purchase quantity. The purchase quantity decision is modelled with a Poisson regression which is, in turn, integrated with the nested logit.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence, and the Business Cycle

Author
Donaldson, John, Jean-Pierre Danthine, and Thore Johnsen
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Engineering Computations

Solution of Incompressible Steady Flow Problems in Closed Conduits Using Finite Elements and a Structural Analogy

A problem that arises very frequently in many industrial applications is the study of steady incompressible flows in a network of pipes. This paper introduces a structural analogy that allows the problem to be treated with a certain class of non-linear finite elements. The advantage of this formulation is that it falls within the range of capabilities offered by most structural analysis codes available in the market.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
International Journal of Research in Marketing

Assessing Long-Term Promotional Influences on Market Structure

Author
Mela, Carl, Sunil Gupta, and Kamel Jedidi
The allocation of marketing budgets across advertising and sales promotions has changed over the past decade with a marked decrease in the percentage of budgets directed towards advertising. Moreover, there has been much speculation regarding how these changes have affected a brand's positioning vis-?-vis its competitors. In spite of this speculation, previous research has not examined the impact of changes in promotion and advertising on market structure.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
International Journal of Research in Marketing

Assessing Long-Term Promotional Influences on Market Structure

Author
Mela, Carl and Kamel Jedidi
The allocation of marketing budgets across advertising and sales promotions has changed over the past decade with a marked decrease in the percentage of budgets directed towards advertising. Moreover, there has been much speculation regarding how these changes have affected a brand's positioning vis-à-vis its competitors. In spite of this speculation, previous research has not examined the impact of changes in promotion and advertising on market structure.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Marketing Research

Determining Segmentation in Sales Response Across Consumer Purchase Behaviors

Author
Bucklin, Randolph and S. Siddarth
A joint estimation approach is developed to segment households on the basis of their response to price and promotion in brand choice, purchase incidence, and purchase quantity decisions. Brand choice (what to buy) is modeled by multinomial logit, incidence (whether to buy) by nested logit, and quantity (how much to buy) by poisson regression. Response segments are determined probabilistically using a latent mixture model. The approach simultaneously calibrates sales response on 2 dimensions: across segments and the 3 purchase behaviors.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
IEEE Transactions on Information Theory

Error bounds for functional approximation and estimation using mixtures of experts

Author
Zeevi, Assaf, Ronny Meir, and V. Maiorov

We examine some mathematical aspects of learning unknown mappings with the mixture of experts model (MEM). Specifically, we observe that the MEM is at least as powerful as a class of neural networks, in a sense that will be made precise. Upper bounds on the approximation error are established for a wide class of target functions. The general theorem states that ||f-fn||p⩽c/nr d/ for f∈Wpr(L) (a Sobolev class over [-1,1]d), and fn belongs to an n-dimensional manifold of normalized ridge functions.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

Testing New Direct Marketing Offerings: The Interplay of Management Judgment and Statistical Models

Author
Morwitz, Vicki and David C. Schmittlein
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Marketing Research

The Long-Term Impact of Promotions on Consumer Stockpiling Behavior

Author
Jedidi, Kamel, Carl Mela, and Douglas Bowman
Although brands have increased their promotional spending substantially in many categories over the past decade, panel-based research into consumer stockpiling behavior typically has assumed that consumers' decisions regarding whether and how much to purchase have remained invariant to this increase. The authors develop a varying parameter model of purchase incidence and purchase quantity to ascertain whether this increase in promotions has affected households' stockpiling decisions in the long term.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Regional Science

The Max-Min-Min Principle of Product Differentiation

Author
Ansari, Asim, Nicholas Economides, and Joel Steckel

Two and three-dimensional variants of Hotelling's (1929) model of differentiated products are analyzed. In the setup, consumers can place different importances on each product attribute; these are measured by weights on the disutility of distance in each dimension. Two firms play a two-stage game; they choose locations in stage 1 and prices in stage 2. Subgame-perfect equilibria are sought. It is found that all such equilibria have maximal differentiation in one dimension only; in all other dimensions they have minimum differentiation.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Interfaces

Centralized bakery reduces distribution costs using simulation

Author
Rajagopalan, Sampath, Medini Singh, Thomas Morton, and Ephraim Martin, IV

To improve the efficiency of product distribution for a centralized bakery, I first performed each person's tasks and discovered that constructing optimal minimum-distance routes would not significantly reduce costs but replacing the physical validation of new routes with a manual mathematical computation or simulation would. The trick was getting management to trust the simulation enough to use it.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Management Science

A note on the convexity of service-level measures of the (<em>r, q</em>) system

Author
Green, Linda, Peter Kolesar, and Hongtao Zhang

This note gives a simple proof that in a (r, q) system the average outstanding backorders andthe average stockouts per unit time are jointly convex in the two control variables q and r.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Economic Literature

Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment

Author
Hubbard, R. Glenn

Examines the correlation between investments and proxies for changes in net worth or internal funds and the importance of this correlation for firms likely to face information related capital-market imperfections. Developments and challenges in empirical research; Analytical underpinnings of models of capital market imperfections; Model's application to investment activities.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Review of Accounting Studies

Earnings Management and the Revelation Principle

Author
Arya, A., Jonathan Glover, and S. Sunder
When the Revelation Principle (RP) holds, managing earnings confers no advantage over revelation. We construct an explanation for earnings management that is based on limitations on owners' ability to make commitments (a violation of the RP's assumptions). Traditionally, earnings management is seen as sneaky managers pulling the wool over the eyes of gullible owners by manipulating accruals; our limited commitment story suggests that the owners, too, can benefit from earnings management.
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Management Science

Optimal updating of forecasts for the timing of future events

Author
Hwang, Juhwen, Medini Singh, W. Hurley, and Robert Shumsky

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. Traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, in many applications forecast error costs accumulate over time, and the forecasts themselves may be updated with information that is collected as the expected time of the event approaches. This paper examines one such application, in which flow control managers in the U.S.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Journal of Finance

Blocks, Liquidity, and Corporate Control

Author
Bolton, Patrick and Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

The paper develops a simple model of corporate ownership structure in which costs and benefits of ownership concentration are analyzed. The model compares the liquidity benefits obtained through dispersed corporate ownership with the benefits from efficient management control achieved by sonic degree of ownership concentration. The paper reexamines the free-rider problem in corporate control in the presence of liquidity trading, derives predictions for the trade and pricing of blocks, and provides criteria for the optimal choice of ownership structure.

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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998

Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators

Author
Mishkin, Frederic and Arturo Estrella
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Type
Journal Article
Date
1998
Journal
Marketing Letters

Using a Community of Knowledge to Build Intelligent Agents

Author
West, Patricia and Andrew Gershoff
The modeling of individual consumer preference can be aided by incorporating others' opinions which contain information above and beyond identified product attributes. The value of others' opinions is tested using two empirical data sets. The results indicate that incorporating others' opinions into an attribute-based model can reduce systematic error and increase predictive accuracy by serving as a proxy for missing information (e.g., undiscovered attributes or attribute interactions, sensory or experiential aspects of the product, as well as advertising or word of mouth effects).
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