The Predictive Power of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Implications for the European Central Bank
Thinking About Values in Prospect and Retrospect: Maximizing Experienced Utility
The Emergence and Prevalence of Employee Management Rhetorics: The Effect of Long Waves, Labor Unions, and Turnover, 1875 to 1992
Building Global Brands
Global brands represent enormous cash-producing assets. To build them requires consistency over time and across country borders. The key for developing consistent strategy across country borders is identifying the global segment and the global position. The key for implementing that strategy is often the global marketing team.
Comprehensive Income
Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market
Evidence from the Boston condominium market of the early 1990's reveals that an owner's equity position determines his experience as a seller. An owner of a property with a high loan-to-value ratio sets a higher asking price, has a higher expected time on the market and, if he sells, receives a higher price than an owner with proportionately less debt. The down payment requirement for purchasers, but not incumbent owners, provides a simple explanation for this phenomenon among owner-occupants.
Love Thy Neighbor? Differentiation and Spatial Agglomeration in the Manhattan Hotel Industry
On Biases in Tests of the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
We document extreme bias and dispersion in the small-sample distributions of four standard regression-based tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. The biases arise because of the extreme persistence in short interest rates. We derive approximate analytic expressions for the biases under a simple first-order autoregressive data generating process for the short rate.
Choice in Computer-Mediated Environments
How Different Are Income and Consumption Taxes?
It is argued that, with respect to efficiency gains, the distinction between reform toward a broad-based income tax and reform toward a broad-based consumption tax is relatively minor. This is not to say that there are not important efficiency and distributional consequences of moving from the current tax system to a broad-based consumption tax. Most such consequences can be traced to reform of the income tax.
Implementing Coordinated Team Play
Multilateral Tariff Cooperation During the Formation of Free-Trade Areas
Structuring a Theory of Moral Sentiments: Institutional and Organizational Coevolution in the Early Thrift Industry
Survival and Growth with a Liability: Optimal Portfolio Strategies in Continuous Time
Teams, Repeated Tasks, and Implicit Incentives
The Long-Term Impact of Promotion and Advertising on Consumer Brand Choice
The Long-Term Impact of Promotion and Advertising on Consumer Brand Choice
A study examines the long-term effects of promotion and advertising on consumers' brand choice behavior. Some 8 1/4 years of panel data for frequently purchased packaged goods are used to address 2 questions: 1. Do consumers' responses to marketing mix variables, such as price, change over a long period of time? 2. If yes, are these changes associated with changes in manufacturers' advertising and retailers' promotional policies? Using these results, implications for manufactures' pricing, advertising and promotion policies are drawn.
A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development
This paper develops a model of growth and income inequalities in the presence of imperfect capital markets, and it analyses the tickle-down effect of capital accumulation. Moral hazard with limited wealth constraints on the part of the borrowers is the source of both capital market imperfections and the emergence of persistent income inequalities. Three main conclusions are obtained from this model. First, when the rate of capital accumulation is sufficiently high, the economy converges to a unique invariant wealth distribution.
Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?
A fundamental prediction error: Self-others discrepancies in risk preference
On Cost Tradeoffs Between Conservative and Market-Value Accounting
Corrected diffusion approximations for a multistage production-inventory system
We analyze a multistage inventory system with limited production capacity facing stochastic demands. Each node follows a periodic-review base-stock policy for echelon inventory: in each period, each node attempts to produce enough material to restore cumulative down-stream inventory to a fixed target level. We develop approximations to the key measures of interest (average inventories, average backorders, and service levels) by simultaneously letting the mean demand approach the system's bottleneck capacity and letting the base-stock level for finished goods increase without bound.
Multilateral Tariff Cooperation During the Formation of Customs Unions
Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
We propose a procedure for representing a time series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component. We document the nature of the comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series. We find that these comovements are very different than the corresponding comovements of the slowly varying trend components.
Regulatory Focus and Strategic Inclinations: Promotion and Prevention in Decision-Making
A Comparison of Two Process Tracing Methods for Choice Tasks
A Continuity Correction for Discrete Barrier Options
The payoff of a barrier option depends on whether or not a specified asset price, index, or rate reaches a specified level during the life of the option. Most models for pricing barrier options assume continuous monitoring of the barrier; under this assumption, the option can often be priced in closed form. Many (if not most) real contracts with barrier provisions specify discrete monitoring instants; there are essentially no formulas for pricing these options, and even numerical pricing is difficult.
A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management
A firm has inventories of a set of components that are used to produce a set of products. There is a finite horizon over which the firm can sell its products. Demand for each product is a stochastic point process with an intensity that is a function of the vector of prices for the products and the time at which these prices are offered. The problem is to price the finished products so as to maximize total expected revenue over the finite sales horizon. An upper bound on the optimal expected revenue is established by analyzing a deterministic version of the problem.
A Theoretical Examination of the Market Reaction to Auditors' Qualifications
Studies the responsiveness of manager clients to opinions made by auditors based on their qualifications through an equilibrium model. Discussion on the two-period equilibrium model; Propositions on high report of auditors; Related studies on audit opinions and market opinion.
Antecedents of Positivity Effects in Social Versus Nonsocial Judgments
Attentional Homogeneity in Industries: The Effect of Discretion
Beyond Pleasure and Pain
Bounds and asymptotics for planning critical safety stocks
We develop bounds and approximations for setting base-stock levels in production-inventory systems with limited production capacity. Our approximations become exact as inventories become critical, meaning either that the target service level is very high or the backorder penalty is very large. Our bounds apply even without this requirement. We consider both single-stage and multi-stage systems.
Collusion Over the Business Cycle
Commitment Issues in Budgeting
Consumer Experience and Consideration Sets for Brands and Product Categories
Contract Complexity, Incentives and the Value of Delegation
Decentralizing Telecommunications in Latin America
Density estimation through convex combinations of densities: Approximation and estimation bounds
We consider the problem of estimating a density function from a sequence of independent and identically distributed observations xi taking value in Rd. The estimation procedure constructs a convex mixture of "basis" densities and estimates the parameters using the maximum likelihood method.
Discovering New Points of Differentiation
Distributional Implications of Introducing a Broad-Based Consumption Tax
As a tax base, 'consumption' is sometimes argued to be less fair than 'income' because the benefits of not taxing capital income accrue to high-income households. We argue that, despite the common perception that consumption taxation eliminates all taxes on capital income, consumption and income taxes actually treat similarly much of what is commonly called capital income. Indeed, relative to an income tax, a consumption tax exempts only the tax on the opportunity cost of capital. In contrast to a pure income tax, a consumption tax replaces capital depreciation with capital expensing.
Dynamic Retail Price and Investment Competition
Economic Consequences of Alternative Adoption Rules for New Accounting Standards
The article develops a theoretical framework that explains firms' reactions to accounting standards developed by the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board under its extended adoption policy. The proposed theory highlights the differences between recognized and disclosed accounting information and provides a link between a firm's choice of whether to recognize or disclose information under new accounting standards, and stock price behavior around the adoption announcement.
Emerging Equity Market Volatility
Understanding volatility in emerging capital markets is important for determining the cost of capital and for evaluating direct investment and asset allocation decisions. We provide an approach that allows the relative importance of world and local information to change through time in both the expected returns and conditional variance processes. Our time-series and cross-sectional models analyze the reasons that volatility is different across emerging markets, particularly with respect to the timing of capital market reforms.
Enhanced Monte Carlo estimates for American option prices
A methodology to price American options with finitely many exercise opportunities simulates the evolution of underlying assets via random trees that branch at each of the possible early exercise dates. From these trees, two consistent price estimates are obtained, one biased high and one biased low. These two estimates can be combined to provide a valid, though conservative confidence interval for the option price.
Finite-Mixture Structural Equation Models for Response-Based Segmentation and Unobserved Heterogeneity
Formulating Dynamic Strategies Using Decision Calculus
This paper presents an applied methodology to assist managers in strategically setting prices and allocating resources over the product, brand, or adoption (diffusion) life cycle. While substantial theoretical work has been achieved in this area in the management science and operations research disciplines, approaches which can be implemented as managerial tools are generally lacking.
Gender Differences in Internal and External Focusing Among Adolescents
A report examines whether gender differences in cognition during the depressed mood exist even when males and females are not depressed. Results reveal that females' thoughts are more internally focused than males'.
Heuristics for multimachine minmax scheduling problems with general earliness and tardiness costs
We consider the problem of scheduling N jobs on M parallel machines so as to minimize the maximum earliness or tardiness cost incurred for each of the jobs. Earliness and tardiness costs are given by general (but job-independent) functions of the amount of time a job is completed prior to or after a common due date. We show that in problems with a nonrestrictive due date, the problem decomposes into two parts. Each of the M longest jobs is assigned to a different machine, and all other jobs are assigned to the machines so as to minimize their makespan.
Importance sampling in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework
As the only practical way to deal with most path-dependent instruments, Monte Carlo estimation is now one of the workhorses of modern derivatives valuation. It has the advantage of being relatively easy to implement in its basic form, and, given enough computer resources, it will converge asymptotically to the correct answer. Yet, once these general principles are acknowledged, one faces the fact that many problems have such high dimension that the basic Monte Carlo technique can require an enormous number of simulations before convergence to a reasonably accurate answer is achieved.