Strategy

This paper proposes that customers often respond to brand extension concepts by visualizing the product. We call this process spontaneous visualization and suggest that it precedes concept evaluations. In two studies, we show that spontaneous visualization is enhanced by the fit between the parent brand and the extension category and by the ease with which the product category can be imagined. The appeal of the visualized image in turn determines whether visualization enhances or decreases concept evaluations.

Although the vast majority of real options models assume that investment opportunities are permanently available, many real-world investment opportunities are sporadic. Options to invest can suddenly become blacked-out, only to be followed by a re-opening in the future. For example, the option to develop real estate may open or close depending upon zoning and growth control decisions, competitive entry, or input (labor or material) availability. Similar factors influence complex R&D options. We term such randomly recurring investment opportunities as options on illiquid projects.

The article shows that two measures of the amount of private information in stock price — price nonsynchronicity and probability of informed trading (PIN) — have a strong positive effect on the sensitivity of corporate investment to stock price. Moreover, the effect is robust to the inclusion of controls for managerial information and for other information-related variables. The results suggest that firm managers learn from the private information in stock price about their own firms’ fundamentals and incorporate this information in the corporate investment decisions.

In this paper I explore the lessons learned from the redevelopment of Times Square at 42nd Street, where 13 acres of prime, if blighted, land was assembled by the customary method of condemnation. This experience vividly argues for a more efficient strategy, though in such large-scale redevelopment project where issues of overall control and the redefinition of land uses are often paramount, land readjustment schemes may be difficult to apply.

This paper develops a pure simulation-based approach for computing maximum likelihood estimates in latent state variable models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our MCMC algorithm simultaneously evaluates and optimizes the likelihood function without resorting to gradient methods. The approach relies on data augmentation, with insights similar to simulated annealing and evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithms. We prove a limit theorem in the degree of data augmentation and use this to provide standard errors and convergence diagnostics.

Interest rate swap pricing theory traditionally views swaps as portfolios of forward contracts with net swap payments discounted using the LIBOR curve. Current market practices of marking-to-market and collateralization question this view. Collateralization and marking-to-market affects discounting of swap payments (through altered default characteristics) and introduces intermediate cash-flows. This paper provides a theory of swap valuation under collateralization and we find evidence supporting the presence of costly collateral.

Both noncooperative and cooperative game theory have been applied to business strategy. We propose a hybrid noncooperative-cooperative game model, which we call a biform game. This is designed to formalize the notion of business strategy as making moves to try to shape the competitive environment in a favorable way. (The noncooperative component of a biform game models the strategic moves. The cooperative component models the resulting competitive environment.) We give biform models of various well-known business strategies.

This study offers the first empirical microeconomic analysis of the effectiveness of dollar debt and contract redenomination policies to mitigate adverse financial and relative price consequences from a large devaluation.

While standard real options models assume that agents possess a constant rate of time preference, there is substantial evidence that agents are impatient about choices in the short term but are patient when choosing between long-term alternatives. We extend the real options framework to model the investment-timing decisions of entrepreneurs with time-inconsistent preferences.